A critical immigration trend undermines Donald Trump's entire case for a border wall
Reuters/Jose Luis Gonzalez
Those are the findings of a new study released as part of the Brookings Institution's Papers on Economic Activity conference, and authored by University of California, San Diego economists Gordon Hanson, Chen Liu and Craig McIntosh.
"From the rhetoric during and since the 2016 presidential election, one would think that the United States continues to experience a surge of low-skilled immigration," the authors write. "Although in previous decades such labor inflows certainly occurred, since the Great Recession U.S. borders have become a far less active place when it comes to the net arrival of foreign labor."
Economists widely agree that immigration is beneficial to growth and that Trump's anti-foreigner, anti-trade stances will likely be detrimental to the very workers he promised to help during the campaign.
But beyond this, the Brookings paper suggests the border wall idea is counterproductive on its face.
The statistics are striking. Between 1990 and 2007, "the number of working-age immigrants with 12 or fewer years of schooling more than doubled, rising from 8.5 million to 17.8 million individuals."
The Great Recession, which made US economic prospects look a lot dimmer as 9 million jobs quickly evaporated, helped dent the attractiveness of the United States as a destination for workers.
Moreover, Trump's focus on Mexico is misguided, the authors suggest, and speaks more to xenophobic populism than any fundamental economic concern.
"The undocumented population declined in absolute terms between 2007 and 2014, falling on net by an annual average of 160,000 individuals, while the overall population of low-skilled immigrants of working age remained stable," the authors write.
"Because U.S. neighbors to the south are today experiencing much slower labor-supply growth, the future immigration of young low-skilled labor looks set to decline rapidly, whether or not more-draconian policies to control U.S. immigration are implemented."
Put another way, if they're not coming, why build it?
- I spent $2,000 for 7 nights in a 179-square-foot room on one of the world's largest cruise ships. Take a look inside my cabin.
- Saudi Arabia wants China to help fund its struggling $500 billion Neom megaproject. Investors may not be too excited.
- Colon cancer rates are rising in young people. If you have two symptoms you should get a colonoscopy, a GI oncologist says.
- Catan adds climate change to the latest edition of the world-famous board game
- Tired of blatant misinformation in the media? This video game can help you and your family fight fake news!
- Tired of blatant misinformation in the media? This video game can help you and your family fight fake news!
- JNK India IPO allotment – How to check allotment, GMP, listing date and more
- Indian Army unveils selfie point at Hombotingla Pass ahead of 25th anniversary of Kargil Vijay Diwas
- JNK India IPO allotment date
- JioCinema New Plans
- Realme Narzo 70 Launched
- Apple Let Loose event
- Elon Musk Apology
- RIL cash flows
- Charlie Munger
- Feedbank IPO allotment
- Tata IPO allotment
- Most generous retirement plans
- Broadcom lays off
- Cibil Score vs Cibil Report
- Birla and Bajaj in top Richest
- Nestle Sept 2023 report
- India Equity Market