Britain is not going to kiss the EU goodbye until at least 2019

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Britain is not going to leave the European Union until at least 2019, according to investment bank Citi.

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In a new note, entitled "Any Exit from Brexit? What's Next for the UK and Europe" by Tina Fordham and Tiia Lehto at Citi, article 50 - the mechanism under the Lisbon Treaty in which a country tells the European Union it is leaving the bloc and thereby gives a two-year notice period - is unlikely to be triggered anytime soon because several things need to happen first.

These are outlined in the following chart:

citibrexit1

Citi

As you can tell, Citi predicts that the ruling Conservative party need to find a new leader, who will also be the new Prime Minister. That will be followed by a flurry of political party conferences. Citi then says that a general election may happen and the new UK government may trigger Article 50 once they come to power

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However, it also predicts that another Scottish referendum may happen.

Citi's prediction is not out of this world - Dr. Peter Catterall of Westminster University in a Facebook Live interview with Business Insider said on Monday that a Brexit was unlikely to happen until after a General Election.

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