Global trade of 2017 will depend on service sectors, says HSBC
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As economic and political headwinds slow Whilst the USD value of global merchandise exports has probably contracted by about 3 per cent this year, cross-border sales of services, such as tourism, banking, construction and software development, has risen by 1 per cent in nominal terms, according to HSBC's Global Trade Forecast.
It opined that if governments refrain from introducing new impediments to trade, the value of global goods exports is expected to recover gradually to expand by 3 per cent in 2017 and then 6 per cent a year to 2030.
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Services, meanwhile, will average 7 per cent annual growth to contribute $12.4 trillion to global trade flows in 2030, up from an estimated $4.9 trillion this year, it said.
However, the report said that if new tariff and non-tariff barriers are implemented, whether due to the US trade policy changes mooted by President-elect
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"This complete picture of global commerce clearly shows the value of cross-border trade to our economies and the value of diversification to long-term business growth. We can see that technological advances, rising consumer spending and falling travel costs are boosting the services sector even as factors like commodity price volatility and subdued investment spending weigh on growth in goods trade," HSBC Global Head of Trade and Receivables Finance
In their analysis of bilateral trade between 25 key trading nations, HSBC and research partner
This is partly because spending on services is less affected by fluctuations in economic activity than spending on goods, it said.
Trade in business-to-business (B2B) and information and communications technology (
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The US, UK, China, Germany and India, for example, is already a highly successful exporter of business process outsourcing (BPO) and support services for finance, medicine and engineering, and is sto increase these exports in the coming years, it added.
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