HERE COMES RETAIL SALES...

At 8:30 a.m. ET, the Census Department will publish its September stats on retail sales.

Economists estimate that sales were unchanged month-over-month in September. Excluding autos and gas, economists estimate that sales climbed by 0.5%.

"The weakness in the headline retail sales figure is largely a function of the sharp drop in auto sales, which fell 5.1% mom to 15.4 million in August," noted Bank of America Merrill Lynch ahead of the report. "Gas prices fell in September, but we expect overall gasoline station receipts to be up. After falling 0.9% mom in August, we expect a modest bounceback in building material sales of 0.5% mom. Core control retail sales, which strips out autos, gas station receipts and building materials, is expected to rise by 0.4% mom."

"In retrospect it seems that the August results were exaggerated by a calendar shift that moved Labor Day weekend sales into the August reporting period this year," said Morgan Stanley's Ted Wieseman.

"Electronics sales were probably helped significantly by the introduction of the new iPhone-adding 0.1-0.2 pct pt to retail sales growth," said UBS's Kevin Cummins.

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