Here come retail sales ...

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A shopper pushes his shopping trolley down an aisle at a supermarket in Nice southern France, February 26, 2008. REUTERS/Eric Gaillard

Thomson Reuters

At 8:30 a.m. ET, the Census Bureau will release retail sales numbers for July.

Economists estimate that retail sales gained 0.6% month-on-month, and 0.4% excluding the volatile auto and gas categories.

The advance estimates of the data for June released last month were a big miss. Retail sales dived 0.1% compared to the prior month, and 0.2% excluding auto and gas. Bank of America Merrill Lynch had forecast, against consensus, that retail sales fell, based on their proprietary credit and debit card data.

For July, the bank estimates that sales grew 0.4% month-on-month, excluding autos.

And in a preview to clients, UBS's Sam Coffin wrote: "Retail sales have been choppy-months with spending growth followed by months without. We project that July was a month 'with'. Vehicle sales have already been reported up solidly in July; gasoline prices were close to unchanged after seasonal adjustment; and we forecast a rebound in sales excluding autos, gasoline, and building materials."

We'll be back with the latest details once they cross.

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