I see a labor market that is looking hotter and hotter
In an email on Wednesday, Sløk writes that he continues to talk to clients who don't believe the US economy is anything other than weak, "not good," or on the verge of recession. But the indicators Sløk is looking at show nothing of the sort. In fact, the opposite.
Last week, we highlighted charts from Sløk that showed, to him, an economy picking up steam.
On Wednesday, Sløk turned his focus to the labor market, writing that, "Based on these indicators I would argue that the labor market is already hot and if the Fed delays liftoff further the labor market will be overheated before we get to the neutral fed funds rate, which will only happen in 2017 at the earliest."
The market, for its part, thinks the chances the Fed raises rates in September is about 30%.
In Sløk's view, though, the Fed needs to act.
Here are the charts.
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