LIVE: Jeff Gundlach gives his full outlook for markets and the economy in 2017
Thomson Reuters
The highlight of Gundlach's most recent webcast in December was that a rise in the benchmark 10-year yield to 3% and above would have "a real impact on market liquidity in corporate bonds and junk bonds."
Gundlach also warned of a sell-off in the stock market around inauguration day on January 20, as investors grasp that President-elect Donald Trump doesn't have a magic wand to implement the growth plans they are optimistic about.
Here's a quick recap and scorecard of highlights from Gundlach's 2016 outlook:
- Gundlach said there was no reason to be bullish on oil over the long term. Crude earned a 45% year-to-date gain, but is still roughly half of where it traded at pre-crash recent peak in 2014.
- He forecast that interest rates would move higher, but it was a year to "wait and see" instead of making a bold call. That was mostly accurate - bond yields trended lower until they bottomed in July, started climbing, and then spiked after the US election.
- He took the other side of the consensus call for a higher dollar. It had a choppy year until the post-election surge to the highest level in more than a decade.
- Finally, Gundlach forecast that wages would rise, and profits would remain under pressure. The earnings recession ended in the third quarter, while a tightening labor market put some upward pressure on wages.
The DoubleLine Total Return Bond Fund posted a net outflow of $3.5 billion in December, its biggest one-month withdrawal ever, data from research firm Morningstar showed earlier in January.
We'll have live highlights and slides from the webcast after 4:15 p.m. ET. More to come.
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