One Big Question Surrounds The Murder Of US Journalist James Foley By ISIS

As the U.S. processes the beheading of an American journalist by extremist militants: How did ISIS abduct James Foley, who was widely considered to be in the custody of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad?

The prevailing assumption was that Foley was being held by pro-Assad forces, or by the regime itself. How did he get from there to ISIS?

- Stefan Becket (@stefanjbecket) August 20, 2014

The FBI believes an "organized gang" abducted Foley, who was working for the GlobalPost, shortly after he left an internet café on Nov. 22, 2012.

"We have obtained multiple independent reports from very credible confidential sources … that confirm our assessment that Jim is now being held by the Syrian government in a prison … under the control of the Syrian Air Force Intelligence service, In May 2013, GlobalPost President Philip Balboni released the following statement on behalf of himself and Foley's parents. "[I]t is likely Jim is being held with one or more Western journalists, including most likely at least one other American."

The grisly video (and claims that ISIS also holds TIME contributor Steven Sotloff) is being investigated by U.S. intelligence services, and Foley's family stated that James "gave his life trying to expose the world to the suffering of the Syrian people." What is unclear is if previous investigations into Foley's whereabouts were inaccurate, or if the Assad regime provided Foley to ISIS.

1/3 Until recently, James Foley was thought to be in hands of pro-Assad forces. if Assad is handing over westerners to ISIS to be killed

- Kim Ghattas (@BBCKimGhattas) August 20, 2014

2/3 it indicates Assad feels cornered, looking for leverage. Chimes with what I heard from ppl coming from Damascus recently

- Kim Ghattas (@BBCKimGhattas) August 20, 2014

3/3 would confirm Assad tacitly working w/ ISIS and silence any suggestions Assad is the better alternative. #JamesFoley

- Kim Ghattas (@BBCKimGhattas) August 20, 2014

Bashar al-Assad helped create ISIS by releasing many of its original members from Syria's notorious Sednaya prison on May 31, 2011. He then let the group metastasize over three years to build a narrative that if the U.S. wants to choose sides in the Syrian war, it has to choose from the regime or ISIS.

Bassam Barabandi, who served as a diplomat for several decades in the Syrian Foreign Ministry, explained the strategy in the Atlantic Council:

"Assad first changed the narrative of the newborn Syrian revolution to one of sectarianism, not reform. He then fostered an extremist presence in Syria alongside the activists. Further, he facilitated the influx of foreign extremist fighters to threaten stability in the region," he explained.

"The Islamic State in Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) emerged as one of those facts created to ensure Assad's survival as he and his Iranian backers seek to frame this conflict as a regional sectarian issue, with a classical choice between military powers and Sunni extremists."

And as the U.S. drops bombs on ISIS in Iraq to curb an offensive in the north of the country, Assad is bombing the defacto ISIS capital of Raqqa, Syria to show America that he can be a valuable counterterrorism partner.

"Now that ISIS has fully matured, the Assad regime and Iran offer themselves as partners to the United States," Barabandi wrote. "For the first time, Assad is striking ISIS in Raqqa and locations inside Iraq, in a perverse harvest of the terrorist seeds he planted to quash the civilian-led reform movement."

Given such a cynical plan, it is well within Assad's means and motives to give Western captors to the extremists that he helped make strong.

"This is now the key question: Was Foley taken by the Assad regime?" Middle East analyst Kyle Orton writes. " If he was, then those who believe that Bashar al-Assad is a bulwark against [extremist jihadists] have yet another question to answer about their thesis."