Opinion polls project clear majority for BJP in UP, other crucial states

The election dates are out and poll bugle has been sounded. The Election Commission announced poll schedule for five states and elections in Uttar Pradesh will be held across seven phases. All the parties such as Samajwadi Party, Bahujan Samaj Party, the Bharatiya Janata Party, Congress have been holding massive rallies to woo voters.

As the poll dates were announced, several experts projected heavy victory for the BJP in UP. The poll conducted by India Today from October to December has projected that the BJP will win assembly elections in crucial states, banking on Prime Minister Narendra Modi's demonetisation.

Demonetisation was announced in mid of the survey period.

According to the survey, BJP's vote share increased from 31% in October to 33% in December. In terms of seats, it highlights that 206-216 seats for the party in the 403-member UP assembly.

It also highlighted that Samajwadi Party is likely to emerge as the second largest party with a vote share of 26%.

Bahujan Samaj Party is neck-and-neck with SP in terms of vote share, and is projected to win 79-85 seats. This shows that despite repeated reminders of Mayawati asking Muslim voters to shun SP, it has had little impact as the community remains loyal to the SP even as party remains a divided house.

According to the report, Congress continues to struggle in the state as party is projected to win barely 5-9 seats with only 6%vote share in the state.

The other parties in the state - Rashtriya Lok Dal, Apna Dal, the Left and others - might win 7-11 seats.