PAUL RYAN: There Won't Be Another Government Shutdown - Unless Democrats Force One

There will not be a repeat of last year's federal government shutdown, Rep. Paul Ryan (R-Wisconsin), the chair of the House Budget Committee, told Business Insider in an interview Saturday.

When it returns in September, Congress will have a handful of work days - likely between eight and 12 - during which it needs to tackle two bills that need to be addressed by a Sept. 30 deadline.

The first is a continuing resolution to keep the government operating and prevent it from shutting down. The second, which some have speculated could be thrown into the continuing-resolution debate, is a bill that would reauthorize the charter of the Export-Import Bank, the future of which has been hotly debated among Republicans in Congress.

Some Senate aides had thrown around the possibility of Senate Democrats could attach the bank's reauthorization to the continuing resolution, forcing another game of chicken between House Republicans and Senate Democrats with days to go before another shutdown.

Ryan is no fan of the Export-Import Bank, telling Business Insider it's a "chapter in the story of crony capitalism." But he said he expects the fight over the bank to linger into next year, with the likely outcome being a short-term reauthorization.

"Many of us who are critical of the bank feel that the wisest course is to carry this fight into next year," said Ryan, whose new book, "The Way Forward," was released this week.

"No, there will not be a government shutdown," Ryan added. "If there is a government shutdown, it'll be because the Democrats brought it about."

That likely means the Republican-controlled House will pass a short-term reauthorization of the bank's charter, as well as a continuing resolution to keep the government funded.

This outcome would help Republicans in a couple ways - it would remove the possibility of a damaging government shutdown a little more than a month before crucial midterm elections. And if Republicans retake a Senate majority in those elections this November, it would make for an easier path toward potentially scrapping the bank's charter next year.

"If Republicans win the Majority, it would create the possibility of either major reforms or a deauthorization in an entirely Republican Congress fairly soon," a Senate Republican aide told Business Insider this week.

The bank provides direct loans, guarantees, and credit insurance to aid foreign purchasers in buying American-made goods. The need for its reauthorization has triggered massive debate within the Republican Party and has created unusual alliances in Washington between the White House and Republican establishment-friendly groups like the Chamber of Commerce.

President Barack Obama began a furious White House push for reauthorization on Saturday, making the bank the theme of his weekly address. Along with Ryan, powerful members of the Republican House opposed to renewing the bank's charter include new House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy and House Financial Services Committee Chairman Jeb Hensarling.

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell also plans to vote against the bank's reauthorization next month, he told Politico this week.

In the interview with Business Insider, Ryan ticked off the reasons many in the Republican Party are opposed to renewing the bank's charter on a long-term basis. He said most of the bank's beneficiaries are big businesses, such as Boeing, Caterpillar, and General Electric. The bank's support, he said, goes to the powerful while small businesses get crowded out, and all at a risk to taxpayers.

"You have big government and big business in concert with one another," Ryan said. "Its success goes to the connected, to the powerful. And it provides benefits with taxpayer dollars that most small businesses don't have a chance of getting. I believe that as conservatives, we should be pro-market, not simply pro-business."