The computer models that pick NFL games are on fire - here are the picks for Week 6

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The computer models that pick NFL games are on fire - here are the picks for Week 6

Tom Brady

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Week 6 of the NFL season is here, and Cortana is back to make picks in a head-to-head showdown with Elo.

We took a look at two popular systems used to pick NFL games: Cortana, Microsoft's digital assistant, and Elo, the modeling system used by Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight. In both cases, the computers are picking outright winners and not against the spread. However, each gives a likelihood of a team's winning, which, in theory, could help measure the strength of certain lines.

Cortana won the regular season matchup last year, going 162-78 (68%) overall, and 111-38 (75%) over the last ten weeks (we did not track Week 17 because of the wonky nature of the final week). Elo was not far behind, going 154-86 (64%) overall.

Cortana is off to a strong start in 2018, going 40-21-1 the last four weeks. Elo is not far behind at 36-25-1. Both models went 10-5 in Week 5 and 21-9 over the last two weeks.

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Here are the picks for Week 6, with each model's percent chance of winning in parentheses. Point spreads are just for reference, via Vegas Insider as of Thursday morning.

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Thursday Night Football

Thursday Night Football
  • Philadelphia Eagles (-2) at New York Giants — EAGLES (Elo 71%; Cortana 57%)

Sunday afternoon games — early window

Sunday afternoon games — early window
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons (-3) — FALCONS (Elo 67%; Cortana 66%)
  • Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5) — BENGALS (Elo 54%; Cortana 53%)
  • Los Angeles Chargers (-1) at Cleveland Browns — CHARGERS (Elo 69%); BROWNS (Cortana 51%)
  • Chicago Bears (-3.5) at Miami Dolphins — DOLPHINS (Elo 54%); BEARS (Cortana 60%)
  • Seattle Seahawks (-3) vs. Oakland Raiders (in London) — SEAHAWKS (Elo 67%; Cortana 70%)
  • Arizona Cardinals at Minnesota Vikings (-10) — VIKINGS (Elo 74%; Cortana 78%)
  • Indianapolis Colts at New York Jets (-2.5) — JETS (Elo 67%; Cortana 63%)
  • Carolina Panthers at Washington Redskins (-1) — PANTHERS (Elo 55%); REDSKINS (Cortana 61%)
  • Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans (-10) — BILLS (Elo 52%); TEXANS (Cortana 75%)
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Sunday afternoon games — late window

Sunday afternoon games — late window
  • Los Angeles Rams (-7) at Denver Broncos — RAMS (Elo 69%; Cortana 72%)
  • Jacksonville Jaguars (-3) at Dallas Cowboys — COWBOYS (Elo 53%); JAGS (Cortana 60%)
  • Baltimore Ravens (-3) at Tennessee Titans — TITANS (Elo 53%); RAVENS (Cortana 57%)

Sunday Night Football

Sunday Night Football
  • Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots (-3.5) — PATRIOTS (Elo 54%; Cortana 54%)
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Monday Night Football

Monday Night Football
  • San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers (-9.5) — PACKERS (Elo 66%; Cortana 67%)

Now check out this week's Power Ranking.

Now check out this week's Power Ranking.
NFL POWER RANKINGS: Where all 32 teams stand going into Week 6
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