There's only a '50-60%' chance Apple will build a car, according to one top Apple analyst

Over the last year, there has been a deluge of leaks and rumours about Apple's ultra-secretive electric car project, Project Titan.

We got our clearest indication yet that Apple is looking into self-driving automotive technology in August, when The Guardian broke the news that the Cupertino company was in talks with GoMentum, a test drive facility near San Francisco.

Of course, that Apple is interested in the space doesn't mean an "Apple Car" will ever make it to commercial release: With more than $200 billion in the bank, the company can afford to experiment.

One top Apple analyst is now estimating that the probability "on a car becoming a reality" is around 50-60%.

In a new research note, Piper Jaffray senior research analyst Gene Munster pegs the odds of Project Titan making it to consumers at a little better than 50:50, arguing that while "the auto industry represents a significant opportunity for Apple," the company will "be deliberate as always in its product development and testing."

And if it does, it'll still be a long way off: "Closer to 10 years than 5 years," according to Munster.

Munster also expects the vehicle - like Apple's other products - will sit in the luxury market, "given Apple's focus on the elegance of design and its unwillingness to sacrifice experience for price."

He predicts a focus on connectivity with other Apple products, as well as autonomous capabilities. Google is actively working on self-driving tech, and Uber is also conducting research in the area; it makes sense that Apple would want to be competitive.

Here's a quick rundown of some of the older reports about Project Titan:

• It's being headed up by Steve Zadesky, a veteran of Ford, who also helped develop the iPod. There have also been reports Zadesky has been visiting Austria to find a manufacturer to work with. He has hundreds of people working on it. An Apple employee reached out to Business Insider earlier this year to tell us the company is working on something that will "give Tesla a run for its money."
• Apple has made numerous hires from the automotive industry. Jordan Kahn of 9to5Mac previously put together an extensive list of these recent Apple hires who have experience in the hardware and electric-battery businesses. These include Robert Gough, who previously worked on car-safety systems; John Ireland, who has worked at Tesla and before that as a researcher at Ireland's National Renewable Energy Laboratory; and David Perner, who previously worked as an engineer on hybrid engines at Ford. Apple has even been sued by an electric battery company that alleges it poached its engineers. Most recently, it hired Doug Betts - a former exec from Fiat-Chrysler.
• Apple is apparently talking to auto manufacturers. German-language publication Manager Magazin reported in July that Apple has been in talks with BMW about using the i3 car as the basis of an electric vehicle.
• Industry chatter is growing. According to Bryan Chaffin from The Mac Observer, "a lot of people at the top in Silicon Valley consider it a given that Apple is working on a car." According to financial services company Raymond James, the established auto industry now considers Apple (and Google) "enemies." And the CEO of Fiat-Chrysler also said Tim Cook was "interested in an intervention in the car," following a meeting. (It's significant in itself that the CEO met with Cook, as the other two tech companies he met with - Tesla and Google - are both openly and actively involved in cutting-edge automotive technology.)
• It gels with executive interests. Speaking at the Re/code tech conference in May, Apple executive Jeff Williams said the car was "the ultimate mobile device" in response to a question about what industries the company was exploring. Design chief Jony Ive has been complaining about American cars for years, and designer Marc Newson also recently said that the American car industry is "at the bottom of a trough." And the late Apple cofounder and CEO Steve Jobs always wanted to build a car, telling The New York Times before he died "that if he had more energy, he would have liked to take on Detroit with an Apple car."