These 10 emerging markets will dominate the global economy in the next decade

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These 10 emerging markets will dominate the global economy in the next decade

Narendra Modi Xi Jinping India China BRICS

AP Photo/Manish Swarup

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  • Most of the top 10 fastest growing emerging market economies are in Asia, in line with expectations that the region is the future of the global economy.
  • India claimed top spot in the rankings compiled by Oxford Economics.
  • The rankings take into account factors beyond just GDP figures and also look at funding availability and workforce growth.

Rankings of the biggest growth stars in emerging markets sees India take top spot in the next decade, according to Oxford Economics.

Figures compiled by the research firm indicate that Asian economies will be the most successful emerging markets by 2028 with only one South American country and no African countries in thhe top 10.

Oxford Economics cites the need for emerging markets to undergo rapid capital accumulation through domestic financing to succeed alongside strong GDP and robust total factor productivity (TFP) growth.

A sizeable export sector is seen as a key factor in avoiding the middle-income trap - wherein countries get stuck at one size for long periods of time - with the main way of aiding this coming from investment in innovation.

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According to Oxford Economics, capital deepening stems from investment, the bulk of which has to be financed by domestic saving.

Here are the 10 fastest growing emerging market economies:

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10. South Africa

10. South Africa

Oxford Economics have South Africa as the 10th fastest emerging market economy on the list with average annual GDP growth of 2.3%. It's the only African country on the list, and suffers from a lack of capital deepening, a statistic designed to understand the value of the labour pool.

9. Poland

9. Poland

Europe's only entry in the top 10 is Poland. The country has been in a remarkable growth cycle since its admittance to the European Union, with the Eastern European country expected to maintain 2.5% GDP growth with high capital deepening courtesy of strong access to the European banking sector and its use of the euro.

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8. Chile

8. Chile

South America's only entry on the list is Chile with the country deemed to be a more attractive emerging market growth story than nearby Argentina and Brazil. The country is a mining giant and looks set to be at the forefront of the lithium battery market going forward. Oxford economics predicts a 2.6% GDP average growth rate.

7. Thailand

7. Thailand

The so-called "land of smiles" is one of the world's fastest growing emerging markets with 2.9% GDP growth expected. Tourism makes up around 11% of GDP output with numbers increasing every year. In the previous decade Thailand's labour productivity growth was below the trend for comparable emerging markets' GDP growth, but this is expected to change going forward.

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6. Turkey

6. Turkey

Located at the crossroads between Europe and Asia, Turkey is an emerging market tour de force with its rollercoaster currency and unstable markets a hallmark of the country. However, Oxford Economics thinks the country will grow at around 3% a year. Turkey's comes in lower for capital deepening as a result of its reliance on foreign funding, which saw a crisis in 2018 during the lira's turmoil.

5. Malaysia

5. Malaysia

Previously restricted to being a major exporter of agricultural goods and commodities, the Malaysian economy is another South East Asian power on the rise. Impressive 3.8% GDP growth isn't matched by the country's TFP growth, which is the lowest in the top 10.

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4. China

4. China

Perhaps a surprise at number four is China. The country's rapid transition away from being an emerging market means its GDP growth is expected to slow in the next decade, while its debt levels remain high. China's huge banking market means it has the joint highest capital deepening figures in the top 10 and 5.1% GDP growth.

3. Indonesia

3. Indonesia

Comprised of thousands of islands in the Pacific, Indonesia's growth story is one of the world's most compelling with the country set to be a powerhouse of the global economy in the coming years. Blessed with plentiful natural resources and increasingly less reliant on foreign funding, Indonesia looks set to be a key player in the future with growth of 5.1%.

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2. Phillippines

2. Phillippines

Currently led by the brash strongman Rodrigo Duterte, the Philippines are, much like Indonesia, a large island group with huge economic potential. The Philippines is set to have the highest increase in its labour force of any of the top 10 which, alongside its GDP growth of 5.3%, means it will be one of the world's fastest growing economies sooner rather than later.

1. India

1. India

India tops the charts with its massive GDP growth of 6.5%, and it's likely to be the world's largest economy one day not just within emerging markets. The country has a huge population and when fully utilized it will be an unshakeable force across global markets.

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