Turkey's president threatened a major blow to the US - but Trump looks to have called his bluff

REUTERS/Murad Sezer

Turkish soldiers watch over the Syrian town of Kobani during the height of the conflict with ISIS.

• Turkish President Tayyip Erdoğan has been threatening to leave NATO and the West behind for a long time, but he really doesn't have other good options.
• Turkey engages in several types of behavior that the rest of NATO find unhelpful or downright toxic.
• Trump's sanctions on Turkey tanked their economy, but instead of making good on the threats to walk, Turkey is holding on for dear life.
• Turkey's economy has been poorly managed and relies on huge influxes of cash, which other potential allies like Russia or Iran just can't provide.

Turkish President Tayyip Erdoğan, now feuding with his NATO ally President Donald Trump, wrote an editorial in the New York Times on Friday which painted his country as the victim of US bullying that could result in Ankara "looking for new friends and allies."

Erdoğan's plea for US concessions comes after the Turkish lira sharply tanked, bringing markets in Europe and Asia down with it.

Turkey's economic woes are partly caused by a dispute over the fate of US preacher Andrew Brunson, who Trump reportedly lobbied unsuccuessfully to have released, prompting sanctions which are contributing to the crisis.

Turkey has cozy relations with both Russia and Iran, and his suggestion that Ankara could find "new friends" seems tailor-made to bring fear to European and North American capitals.

But according to Jonathan Eyal, international director of the Royal United Services Institute, Turkey has long been looking for other friends and allies, and that's part of the problem.

"Turkey has no intention of respecting the American sanctions on Iran. It has also said it respects none of the American priorities in Syria. It has offered to buy Russian missiles and other equipment," Eyal told Business Insider.

"At every count and on every part, it's gone against not only the US interests, but the interests of the western alliance."

Turkey's on-again, off-again proposal to buy Russian missile defenses, for example, shows how the country has frequently courted over-the-line behavior much to the anger of NATO.

If Turkey bought Russian missile defenses, Russia would get a window into NATO's first line of defense. With the US's trillion-dollar F-35 stealth jet coming online specifically as an effort to defeat Russian defenses in the case of war, this represents a hard red line, and Congress has acted accordingly by banning the sale of F-35s to Turkey.

Erdoğan's back is against the wall

Tatyana Zenkovich/Pool via REUTERS

US President Donald Trump talks to Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan at NATO headquarters in Brussels, Belgium on July 11, 2018.

If Erdoğan followed through on his threat to leave NATO, he would open a gaping hole in the alliance and possibly give Russia yet another strategic inroad to influence Europe. But that would likely only further isolate Ankara from the prosperous West.

"When the Turkish lira collapsed, so did the Russian ruble," Eyal pointed out, as Russia has heavily invested in Turkey. "If Erdoğan wants to shake hands as friends in poverty with Putin, he's welcome to do it."

Trump's sanctions on Turkey alone almost certainly didn't tank the lira, as sanctions rarely have so profound an effect. Instead, it's Turkey's mismanaged economy that relies on huge influxes of outside cash as inflation rises and Erdoğan resists combating it with higher interest rates because he ideologically opposes it.

Possible other friends for Turkey, like Russia and Iran, just don't have the cash to bail out Ankara. China potentially does, but would insist on its own terms, which a fiercely independent Erdoğan may not accept.

Empty NATO threats

Reuters/Francois Lenoir

President Donald Trump attends a meeting of the North Atlantic Council during a NATO summit in Brussels, Belgium.

On Erdoğan's veiled threat to leave NATO, even Russia doesn't believe him.

"We're not building illusions along with these relations," Frants Klintsevich, a member of the defense and security committee in Russia's upper house of parliament said of Russia's recent closeness to Turkey, according to Bloomberg.

Jim Townsend, a NATO expert at the Center for New American Security told Business Insider: "Turkey will always remain in NATO. Turkey gains nothing by leaving NATO. They can leave NATO if they want, but they're not going to."

As a non-European Union member, Turkey's only real input to Europe's security posture comes from its participation in NATO, Townsend said. Meanwhile, Turkey conducts the vast majority of its trade with Europe.

Without a credible source of alternative military or financial backing, Turkey is now faced with binary choice, according to Eyal. "The only way this could be resolved now is either the US is going to climb down and accept some sort of deal, or Erdoğan will have to lose face big time."

But with the US economy doing well, and Turkey's economy and prospects quickly tanking, Erdoğan has little room to maneuver. He has plenty of reason to wish for mercy from the US, but little reason to expect it unless it falls in line with the US's calls to release Brunson and drop the Russian missiles.