Brutal new poll shows a sharp plunge in support for the Iran deal

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Obama Iran deal

AP

President Barack Obama looks over his notes as he answers questions about the Iran nuclear deal during a news conference in the East Room of the White House in Washington, Wednesday, July 15, 2015.

Americans overwhelmingly dislike the US-led Iran nuclear deal on which President Barack Obama is now trying to sell Congress.

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According to a new Quinnipiac University poll published on Monday, only 28% of Americans said that they approve of the Iran deal, which aims to curb the country's nuclear ambitions in exchange for sanctions relief.

That compared to 57% who said they disapprove of the deal, which was brokered between Iran and six world powers. The vast majority of respondents also said that the deal will make America less safe.

And support for how Obama is handling the situation in Iran is down from a high of 48% approval in late 2013 to just 35% in the latest poll.

"There's not a lot of love for the proposed nuclear deal with Iran. Only a bare majority of Democrats support the pact," Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll said in a statement.

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The results display a clear contrast to what some other polls have found. A Pew Research Center survey released last month also found a plurality opposed the deal. But recent Washington Post-ABC and Economist/YouGov polls from last month both showed that a small majority of Americans support the deal.

Considering the seemingly contradictory way that Americans feel about Iran's threat to the US, the difference may simply be in the way that the question is framed.

When the Washington Post and YouGov posed the question, they provided more context for the deal.

Here's the way the Post framed their question:

Q: The U.S. and other countries have announced a deal to lift economic sanctions against Iran in exchange for Iran agreeing not to produce nuclear weapons. International inspectors would monitor Iran's facilities, and if Iran is caught breaking the agreement economic sanctions would be imposed again. Do you support or oppose this agreement?

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YouGov also provided similar context - and got similar results:

Q: Several world powers, including the United States, have reached an international agreement that would limit Iran's nuclear activity in return for lifting of major economic sanctions against Iran. Do you support or oppose this agreement?

Quinnipiac's wording was much simpler:

Q: Do you support or oppose the nuclear deal with Iran?

Iranians celebrate on the streets following a nuclear deal with major powers, in Tehran July 14, 2015. REUTERS/TIMA

Thomson Reuters

Iranians celebrate on the streets following a nuclear deal with major powers, in Tehran

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And Pew asked Americans whether they had heard about "a recent agreement on Iran's nuclear program between Iran, the United States and other nations," and then asked if they supported or opposed the deal.

This suggests that when the debate is framed in simpler terms, the deal is far less popular. But when respondents know a bit more detail, they are more inclined to support it.

This isn't implausible - because the majority of people aren't paying close attention to the fine points of the agreement. According to the YouGov poll, only 18% of Americans reported that they're "very closely" paying attention to the issue.

Nor is Iran really a top concern for most Americans, who still care about foreign-policy and national-security issues far less than a host of domestic issues ranging from immigration to unemployment.

Still, most Americans overwhelmingly consider Iran to be a threat to the United States.

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A Gallup poll taken earlier this year showed that 77% of Americans believed that the development of nuclear weapons by Iran is a "critical threat" to US interests. That's an overwhelmingly large number compared to the way Americans weigh other critical threats.