'Hard Brexit' and Trump's protectionism would eradicate $1.2 trillion from global trade
REUTERS/Daniel LeClair
That's according to HSBC in its new report entitled "Unlocking the Growth Potential of Services Trade."
"If new tariff and non-tariff barriers are implemented due to US trade policy changes mooted by President-elect Donald Trump and a so-called 'hard Brexit' in the UK, the combined value of goods and services trade in 2030 could drop by 3% to USD48.8trn from a current projection of USD50trn," the report says.
At the beginning of December, Trump said the US should view trade "almost as a war" and vowed to implement protectionist policies.
He said that his administration would renegotiate trade deals and "defeat the enemy on jobs. And we have to look at it almost as a war, because that's what's happened to us."
"That's what's happened to our workers."
Britain has yet to start the two-year Brexit negotiation period because it has not triggered Article 50. That period is set to start in March.
Although the nation voted by a slim majority to leave the EU, there is very little detail on what is going to happen to the UK in a few years time. Prime Minister Theresa May said she will not give a "running commentary" on how negotiations are going, but she has made it clear in various speeches that her government is prioritising immigration restrictions. That would imply a "hard Brexit" because the EU's official rules are that it will not allow the UK to curb immigration and keep membership of the single market at the same time.
So if there is a "hard Brexit," combined with Trump implementing his anti-globalist trade policies, this could shave off nearly $2 trillion to global trade value.
- I quit McKinsey after 1.5 years. I was making over $200k but my mental health was shattered.
- Some Tesla factory workers realized they were laid off when security scanned their badges and sent them back on shuttles, sources say
- I tutor the children of some of Dubai's richest people. One of them paid me $3,000 to do his homework.
- Why are so many elite coaches moving to Western countries?
- Global GDP to face a 19% decline by 2050 due to climate change, study projects
- 5 things to keep in mind before taking a personal loan
- Markets face heavy fluctuations; settle lower taking downtrend to 4th day
- Move over Bollywood, audio shows are starting to enter the coveted ‘100 Crores Club’