A rough new analysis shows the final GOP tax bill would favor the richest Americans

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donald trump mitch mcconnell Evan Vucci/AP Images Donald Trump and Mitch McConnell

  • A new report from the Tax Policy Center showed that, on average, Americans at every income level will receive a tax cut from the GOP tax bill.
  • The benefits will also be tilted towards the rich, according to the TPC analysis.
  • Additionally, by 2025, 10.9% of middle-income tax filers could see an increase in their tax bill.


A new analysis of the GOP tax bill, released just 24 hours before a final vote is expected to take place on the bill in the House, showed that majority of the benefit from the plan would go to the wealthiest Americans.

The report from the nonpartisan Tax Policy Center (TPC) found that while Americans at all income levels would, on average, get a tax cut form the final version of the tax bill, the benefit would be skewed towards people at the upper range of income earners.

"In general, higher income households receive larger average tax cuts as a percent age of after-tax income, with the largest cuts as a share of income going to taxpayers in the 95th to 99th percentiles of the income distribution," TPC's report said.

The largest change would come at the end of the 10-year budget window for the bill, but most of the effects would be due to the expiration of individual tax brakes after 2025. Republican leaders have been confident that those tax breaks will be extended , but it is not guaranteed.

Here's a rundown of the benefits for different income groups in different years under the final version of the TCJA:

  • 2018:
    • Bottom quintile (Incomes less than $25,000 a year): On average, this group would receive a tax break of $60, increasing after tax incomes by 0.4%. This would account for 1% of the federal tax change. 1.2% of tax units would see an increase in their tax burden, while 53.9% would receive a cut.
    • Middle quintile (Incomes from $49,000 to $86,000): On average, this group would receive a tax break of $930, increasing after-tax incomes by 2.9%. This would account for 11.2% of the federal tax change. 7.3% of tax units would see an increase in their tax burden, while 91.3% would receive a cut.
    • Top quintile (Income of $149,400 and above): On average, this group would receive a tax break of $7,640, increasing after-tax incomes by 1.6%. This would account for 65.3% of the federal tax change. 6.2% of tax units would see an increase in their tax burden, while 93.7% would receive a cut.
    • 95th to 99th percentiles (Incomes from $308,000 to $733,000): On average, this group would receive a tax break of $13,480, increasing after-tax incomes by 4.1%. This would account for 22.1% of the federal tax change. 9.3% of tax units would see an increase in their tax burden, while 90.7% would receive a cut.
  • 2025:
    • Bottom quintile: On average, this group would receive a tax break of $70, increasing after-tax incomes by 0.4%. This would account for 1.3% of the federal tax change. 5.1% of tax units would see an increase in their tax burden, while 49.8% would receive a cut.
    • Middle quintile: On average, this group would receive a tax break of $910, increasing after-tax incomes by 1.3%. This would account for 11.4% of the federal tax change. 10.9% of tax units would see an increase in their tax burden, while 87.4% would receive a cut.
    • Top quintile: On average, this group would receive a tax break of $7,460, increasing after-tax incomes by 2.3%. This would account for 65.8% of the federal tax change. 13.1% of tax units would see an increase in their tax burden, while 86.8% would receive a cut.
    • 95th to 99th percentiles: On average, this group would receive a tax break of $12,860, increasing after-tax incomes by 3.2%. This would account for 21.6% of the federal tax change. 5.7% of tax units would see an increase in their tax burden, while 94.2% would receive a cut.
  • 2027:
    • Bottom quintile: On average, this group would see a tax increase of $30, decreasing after-tax incomes by 0.1%. This would account for -4.6% of the federal tax change. 32.6% of tax units would see an increase in their tax burden, while 11.1% would receive a cut.
    • Middle quintile: On average, this group would see a tax increase of $20, decreasing after-tax incomes by less than 0.1%. This would account for -2.1% of the federal tax change. 69.7% of tax units would see an increase in their tax burden, while 24.4% would receive a cut.
    • Top quintile: On average, this group would receive a tax break of $1,260, increasing after-tax incomes by 0.4%. This would account for 107.3% of the federal tax change. 52.3% of tax units would see an increase in their tax burden, while 46.7% would receive a cut.
    • 95th to 99th percentiles: On average, this group would receive a tax break of $1,010, increasing after-tax incomes by 0.2%. This would account for 16.4% of the federal tax change. 41.5% of tax units would see an increase in their tax burden, while 58.0% would receive a cut.

The House is scheduled to vote on the TCJA on Tuesday and the Senate will take up the bill immediately after, meaning President Donald Trump could sign the measure into law as early as Wednesday.

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