BREXIT POLLS: The huge swing for Leave doesn't signal a guaranteed Brexit

Recent polls show that a Brexit is becoming more and more likely but, according to analysts at Morgan Stanley, the outcome is far from certain.

The release of a poll on Monday night showed another substantial lead for the Leave campaign. The online and telephone poll, conducted by ICM on behalf of the Guardian has the split at 53% for Leave, 47% for Remain.

But, Jacob Nell and his team at Morgan Stanley point out that the the "poor recent track record of polls and political betting markets" as well as the lack of a historical precedent means that it's not all over for the "Remain" camp yet.

Analysts at Morgan Stanley say: "The UK's referendum on EU membership looks set to be a close call. Our tracker, which weights internet polls, telephone polls and the betting markets equally, currently points to a 33% probability of a vote to Leave."

"We put the probability slightly lower at 30% - reflecting the well established pattern of a late swing to the status quo - but we would still characterise the outcome as close and uncertain.We think the outcome will mark a fork in the road, with recovery, reflation and rising rates in the UK in 'Remain,' and protracted uncertainty in 'Leave' for both the UK and Europe."