Experts say ISIS's leader is taking a big risk to capitalize on the Sri Lanka attacks - and it's a 'big middle finger' to counterterrorism forces

Associated Press

This image made from video posted on a militant website on Monday, April 29, 2019, purports to show the leader of the Islamic State group, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, being interviewed by his group's Al-Furqan media outlet. Al-Bagdadi acknowledged in his first video since June 2014 that IS lost the war in the eastern Syrian village of Baghouz that was captured last month by the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces. (Al-Furqan media via AP)

• Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the mysterious leader of the terrorist group ISIS, made his first appearance in approximately five years in a video on Monday.
• In the video, Baghdadi sought to rally the group's followers now that its so-called caliphate is destroyed, and praised those behind the deadly Easter Sunday attacks in Sri Lanka.
• Experts told INSIDER that Baghdadi took a big risk in making this appearance, but did so to recruit and fundraise off of the Sri Lanka attacks and to send a message that ISIS is not defeated.
• Visit Business Insider's homepage for more stories.

The elusive leader of the Islamic State terrorist group on Monday showed his face for the first time in roughly half a decade in a new video, and experts say he took this huge risk to capitalize on the devastating Easter Sunday terror attacks in Sri Lanka.

Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi has been rumored dead or severely wounded several times in the past. But in Monday's video, he appeared to be in good health as he delivered a nearly 20-minute address.

In 2014, Baghdadi sent shockwaves around the world when the Islamic State - also known as ISIS - took over a large swath of territory across Iraq and Syria and declared a caliphate. As of last month, ISIS has lost its territorial holdings in the Middle East, and its so-called caliphate fell when US-backed forces captured the Syrian village of Baghouz from the group.

Read more: ISIS released the first video of its leader in 5 years, showing him discussing the group's defeat in Syria and the bombings in Sri Lanka

But the militant group still has thousands of fighters and a lethal network across the globe.

ISIS claimed responsibility for the Easter Sunday attacks in Sri Lanka that killed at least 250 people. The coordinated attacks were among the deadliest carried out by the group and its affiliates. Baghdadi praised those responsible for the deadly attacks in Sri Lanka in Monday's video as he sought to rally the group's followers.

The video and Baghdadi's reemergence is a "way for him to say that even without the land, the message of the Islamic State lives on," Ali Soufan, a former FBI agent and terrorism expert, told INSIDER.

"It is definitely an attempt to keep the Islamic State's brand alive, while taking advantage of recent events - like Sri Lanka - to show that the group can still inspire and coordinate attacks," Soufan said.

The battle in Iraq and Syria "might be over" for ISIS, Soufan added, "but it can live on in so many other places." He noted that much of the language in the new video encouraged followers to "act locally" in support of the group.

A 'moment of transition' for ISIS

David Sterman, an expert on terrorism and violent extremism at the New America Foundation, told INSIDER that ISIS is at a "moment of transition due to its territorial collapse" and "keeping its spot as a leader of the affiliate network and inspired attackers requires strong messaging - something that benefits at this time from their recent major attack in Sri Lanka."

Peter Mandaville, a professor of international relations at George Mason University, said Monday's video is "reminiscent" of clips from Osama bin Laden while he was in hiding during the mid-2000s after the 9/11 terror attacks.

The video clips were used by bin Laden to demonstrate that "even as Al-Qaeda was dislodged from Afghanistan, the broader struggle continued in other regions," Mandaville told INSIDER.

"So, this is an effort by Baghdadi, above all, to prove his group's ongoing relevance," Mandaville added.

It's a 'big middle finger' to the global counterterrorism force

Peter Vincent, a counterterrorism expert and former Homeland Security official under the Obama administration, described the video as a "big middle finger to the global counterterrorism infrastructure committed to destroying [Baghdadi] and the so-called Islamic State."

Vincent told INSIDER that with this video Baghdadi is "purposely running the risk" that the clip could provide intelligence that might lead to his capture because he wants to send a message to the world that he's still "very much alive and viable."

"Given the recent attack in Sri Lanka that appears to have had some international operational support, this video is al-Baghdadi's way of saying that he's still in control and is still calling the shots, literally and figuratively," Vincent added.

Vincent said that despite the fact ISIS has "lost its physical caliphate ... it is, unfortunately, by no means defeated" and the "concept of the Islamic State remains an extremely powerful recruiting mechanism for thousands of disaffected and alienated men and women across the globe."

Read more: ISIS' 'caliphate' is no more - 14 photos of its last days under a US-backed onslaught

Releasing this video is such close proximity to the Sri Lanka attacks is all about maximizing recruiting and fundraising, according to Stephen Biddle, adjunct senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations.

Biddle told INSIDER that ISIS' recruiting and fundraising has "always been more international than many such groups." He also suspects ISIS is "sensitive" to President Donald Trump's repeated assertion that the group has been defeated.

"I imagine they're interested in making maximum hay from something as newsworthy as the Sri Lanka attacks to impress on potential recruits and donors that they're not dead, they're not gone, and they remain an important player," Biddle said.

Biddle added that by revealing that Baghdadi is not dead, the group bolsters this narrative and offers ISIS "valuable publicity" by keeping the story alive. "That's arguably worth some degree of risk at this particular moment," Biddle said.

He also pointed to research that has shown that the less territory the group controls, the more lethal it has been.

"There's no good reason to assume that they will become less lethal now that they control less territory," Biddle said.

In short, ISIS is starting a new chapter, and the Sri Lanka attacks could be a bellwether of its post-caliphate game-plan.