One of Wall Street's most-followed forecasts for the US economy is looking worse and worse

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  • The Atlanta Fed's GDP now tracker projects 1.9% growth for the US economy in the first quarter.
  • The tracker saw 5.4% growth in early February.
  • President Donald Trump has touted 3% growth for his administration.

One model that forecasts the US economy's performance saw another big downward revision on Wednesday.

The Atlanta Federal Reserve's GDPNow model projects that gross domestic product will increase at a 1.8% annualized rate in the first quarter. That's down from last week's 2.5% estimate, and well below the 5.4% print from the beginning of February. A survey of economists conducted by Bloomberg shows shows Wall Street is anticipating 2% growth.

The model was revised lower after Tuesday's CPI report and Wednesday's advanced retail sales reading. CPI was in line, up 2.2% year-over-year, while retail sales slid 0.1% month-over-month.

"After yesterday's Consumer Price Index release from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and this morning's retail sales report from the U.S. Census Bureau, the nowcast of first-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth fell from 2.2 percent to 1.4 percent," The Atlanta Fed said.

Wednesday's downward revision pushes the Atlanta Fed's estimate for first quarter GDP well below the 3% target that President Donald Trump has touted for his administration. The US economy grew at a roughly 2% annual rate during former President Barack Obama's tenure.

First quarter GDP will be released on April 27.

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