A computer model that picks NFL games is having another strong season - here are the picks for Week 10

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A computer model that picks NFL games is having another strong season - here are the picks for Week 10

Dak Prescott

Ronald Martinez/Getty Images

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Week 10 of the NFL season is here, and Cortana is back to make picks in a head-to-head showdown with Elo.

We looked at two popular systems used to pick NFL games: Cortana, Microsoft's digital assistant, and Elo, the modeling system used by Nate Silver's data-journalism site, FiveThirtyEight.

In both cases, the computers are picking outright winners and not against the spread. However, each gives a likelihood that a team will win - which, in theory, could help measure the strength of certain lines.

Cortana is off to a strong start this season, correctly picking 72% of the games over the past six weeks and 69% overall. Elo has nailed 69% over the past five weeks and is at 63% overall.

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Here are the picks for Week 10, with each team's percent chance of winning in parentheses. Point spreads are for reference, via Vegas Insider as of Thursday morning.

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"Thursday Night Football"

"Thursday Night Football"
  • Carolina Panthers at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5) — STEELERS (Elo 61%, Cortana 57%)

Sunday-afternoon games — early window

Sunday-afternoon games — early window
  • Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears (-6.5) — BEARS (Elo 65%, Cortana 69%)
  • New Orleans Saints (-5.5) at Cincinnati Bengals — SAINTS (Elo 64%, Cortana 66%)
  • Atlanta Falcons (-5.5) at Cleveland Browns — FALCONS (Elo 78%, Cortana 63%)
  • New England Patriots (-6.5) at Tennessee Titans — PATRIOTS (Elo 63%, Cortana 72%)
  • Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts (-3) — COLTS (Elo 56%, Cortana 63%)
  • Arizona Cardinals at Kansas City Chiefs (-16.5) — CHIEFS (Elo 88%, Cortana 84%)
  • Buffalo Bills at New York Jets (-7) — JETS (Elo 63%, Cortana 77%)
  • Washington Redskins at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3) — BUCS (Elo 54%, Cortana 58%)
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Sunday-afternoon games — late window

Sunday-afternoon games — late window
  • Los Angeles Chargers (-10) at Oakland Raiders — CHARGERS (Elo 76%, Cortana 75%)
  • Miami Dolphins at Green Bay Packers (-9.5) — PACKERS (Elo 61%, Cortana 74%)
  • Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams (-9.5) — RAMS (Elo 69%, Cortana 69%)

"Sunday Night Football"

"Sunday Night Football"
  • Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles (-7) — EAGLES (Elo 74%, Cortana 67%)
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"Monday Night Football"

"Monday Night Football"
  • New York Giants at San Francisco 49ers (-3) — 49ERS (Elo 67%, Cortana 63%)

Now check out this week's power rankings.

Now check out this week's power rankings.
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