A gambling guide to the best bets of Wild Card weekend

The bet: Chiefs -8.5 ($110 to win $100)

The logic: I haven't believed in the Titans all season, and although they were able to put together four solid enough quarters against the Jaguars last week to make it to the postseason, I don't see them putting together any sort of shocking playoff run.

The Chiefs have run hot and cold all year, but they have enough weapons to take care of the Titans, and as much as we've seen him blunder a time management situation to end a half, Andy Reid should have his team well prepared.

The bet: Over 76.5 yards ($55 to win $50)

The logic: I see the Chiefs jumping to a lead in this one and Kareem Hunt having a day as Kansas City looks to control the battle for time of possession. Hunt has had totals of 91, 155, and 116 rushing yards in his past three home games, and I expect him to put on another show for the fans at Arrowhead this weekend.

The bet: Over 19.5 completions ($55 to win $50)

The logic: The Titans dynamic rushing offense led by Derrick Henry and DeMarco Murray has made it so that Marcus Mariota does not have to be a focal point of a Tennessee win. But in losses, Mariota throws, and more throws leads to more receptions — Mariota has gotten to 20 completions in three of the Titans past four losses, and since I have the Tennessee losing this one, I like this bet a lot.

The bet: Falcons +6 ($110 to win $100)

The logic: The Rams have been one of the most remarkable stories of the season, and while I love the job that Sean McVay has done with the franchise, it is a roster full of young players, and I do believe that postseason experience matters.

Sure, there is a chance that the Falcons can't find their offense and the Rams roll them as they have many teams over the course of this season. But I like Atlanta to put up a fight, and I think six points is a lot to give to a defending NFC Champion that has only lost two games this season by more than a touchdown.

The bet: Over 1.5 touchdown passes ($55 to win $50)

The logic: In his past five playoff games, Matt Ryan has thrown two touchdowns just once — the other four games, he threw three or more.

The bet: Over 87.5 rushing yards ($55 to win $50)

The logic: Todd Gurley was so hot in the final weeks of the season that he made a late push as an MVP candidate. He's cleared 100 yards rushing in six games this year, and has consistently been the most dependable aspect of the Rams offensive attack. Should Los Angeles get rattled early and need to settle in, Gurley is the guy they'll go to.

The bet: Bills +8.5 ($110 to win $100)

The logic: I'm betting with my heart rather than my senses here, so feel free to skip this one or at the very least lower your bet amount, but I just can't pick against the Bills in this spot. LeSean McCoy still might be able to go for Buffalo, and if he can, he'll be the most dynamic offensive player on either team.

I don't have much to back it up besides my gut, but the Bills have been away from the playoffs for so long I think they find a way to keep it close.

The bet: Under 77.5 rushing yards ($55 to win $50)

The logic: Leonard Fournette has failed to clear 70 yards rushing in four of the Jaguars past five games. But more importantly, I expect the Bills to stack the box in this one and force Blake Bortles to beat them, further stifling Fournette's numbers.

The bet: Over 27.5 rushing yards ($55 to win $50)

The logic: LeSean McCoy is still listed as questionable, and even if he plays he may not be 100% on the field. The Bills will need to get clever in order to pick up first downs. Between a few design run plays and a few more broken pass plays in which the Jaguars defense is covering the Bills receivers like a blanket, I see Tyrod Taylor scampering for at least 30 yards in this one.

The bet: Panthers +7 ($110 to win $100)

The logic: The Panthers already lost twice to the Saints this year, both times by more than a touchdown, and while I the numbers don't totally back up the oft-told theory of "it's tough to beat a team three times in one year," that doesn't stop me from somewhat believing the in the logic of it.

More than that, I just like Carolina to find a way to keep things close here. They're playing a division rival that they know well, and even if they're losing a backdoor cover for pride could be in play late. There were too many points on the board to go the other way.

The bet: Under 269.5 passing yards ($55 to win $50)

The logic: Drew Brees failed to hit 270 in both of the Saints' games against the Panthers so far this year, and since they've won both of those games, I don't see New Orleans changing up their game plan much. The Saints offense has been defined (surprisingly!) by their rushing game all year, and I don't think that changes just because we've made it to the postseason.

The bet: Over 4 sacks ($55 to win $50)

The logic: This is a bet on Luke Kuechly more than anything, but it's worth noting that in the games these teams have played so far this year, there were four sacks and five sacks. Both quarterbacks drop back enough to get to this number.

And there you have it! Once again, we have $880 worth of fictional money in play this week. Next week we'll check how we did, and see if I've driven us fictionally bankrupt heading into the divisional round.

Best of luck out there.