A Patriots Super Bowl win could lead to a tough year for stocks - at least according to one superstition
Maddie Meyer/Getty Images
- The Super Bowl Indicator, a long-standing market superstition, suggests that stocks will perform worse if the Patriots win the big game than if the Eagles do.
- The S&P 500 has gained just 1.5% on average in years the Patriots emerge victorious, versus a 5.1% increase when they lose, according to LPL Financial data.
- This is a fun indicator that doesn't have any real bearing on the market.
So if Tom Brady and the New England Patriots are victorious over the Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday, investors can expect a worse stock market performance than if their opponents win, according to a prognostication tool called the Super Bowl Indicator.Advertisement
As superstition tells it, when an AFC team wins the Super Bowl, it's bad news for the stock market that year.
The chart below shows how this has shaken out over 51 Super Bowls up to this point. Note that the average full-year return for the benchmark S&P 500 when the NFC wins has been almost double the performance seen when the AFC takes home the Lombardi trophy, according to data compiled by LPL Financial. Further, there have been fewer up years and more down years after an AFC victory, the data show.
blog post. "Tom might be terrific, but maybe not in all cases."With all of this said, it's important to note that the Super Bowl Indicator is a superstition, and holds no direct bearing on the stock market in a given year. It's simply a fun angle to consider when watching the big game.Advertisement
So if the Patriots do win, fear not, because actual market conditions and fundamentals are what will dictate stock performance in 2018.
- Rupee rises 10 paise to 75.50 against US dollar in early trade
- Over 19K COVID-19 cases push India's tally above 6 lakh, 5 days after crossing 5-lakh mark
- Microsoft OneDrive gets 100GB file upload limit, Dark Mode
- Russo Bros wary of returning to theatres amid COVID-19
- Lee Fixel, the man behind Tiger Global's investments in Facebook, Spotify and Flipkart has a new $1.3 billion fund