Ad execs are deeply skeptical that TV measurement will ever catch up to digital - putting comScore and Nielsen on notice and billions on the line

• The beleaguered media research firm ComScore is trying to mount a challenge against incumbent Nielsen with a string of major hires and product announcements.
• The stakes are huge, as advertisers spend $70 billion on TV ads annually in the US, yet TV viewership is shifting radically, meaning that TV measurement is a massive challenge.
• Ad sellers and buyers welcome the competition, but plenty are skeptical. Some worry that these metrics firms need to catch up as TV advertising becomes increasingly tech and data driven.

Tracking TV viewing is really complicated in an era of multiple screens and on demand streams. And the stakes are high, given there's a $70 billion ad market on the line.

Nielsen, the decades-old incumbent in the TV research game, claims it is equipped for an OTT world. Rival comScore intends to leapfrog Nielsen in its ability to gauge who watches which show when and where.

The rest of the industry isn't totally convinced.

Even as several TV executives champion competition between comScore and Nielsen, hoping that both firms raise their games, there remains serious doubts about either researchers' ability to serve the industry's needs going forward.

As more people watch TV shows on digital screens, on their own schedules and with varying ad loads, tracking just how many people see those shows only gets harder.

As comScore vows improvement, and Nielsen defends its turf, some experts are questioning whether these companies are fighting yesterday's wars, trying to count the totality of TV audiences when advertisers are increasingly using data to run ads against specific audiences. That's the kind of thing they do every day on Facebook and Google, and they increasingly want to do on TV.

"The industry has this weird hangover," said Jonathan Steuer, chief research officer for the ad buying agency Omnicom Media Group. "The transition to streaming happened faster than people expected, so we still don't have good cross-platform measurement.

"But ratings alone are answers to the wrong test, since streaming ads and content don't need to be tied together as they are in linear TV."

Tal Chalozin, CTO and cofounder at the video ad tech firm Innovid, says that the new wave of direct-to-consumer brands, accustomed to selling to consumers on Facebook and Instagram using all sorts of powerful data sets, will be left wanting by either comScore of Nielsen, and their panel-based metric approaches.

"Neither are giving the market what they want," he said. "DTC brands are not going to be happy."

Right now, TV companies still love ratings. And they think they're being shortchanged.

For several years now, as live linear TV ratings have tanked, many in the TV industry have grumbled loudly. People are still watching our shows, just differently, they say. And Nielsen is doing a lousy job of adding up how many people watch X show live, via a DVR, on demand, on Hulu, on a network's TV app, on their phones, etc.

It's created an overall sense of frustration.

"I believe we are undervalued still," said Radha Subramanyam, EVP, chief research and analytics at CBS.

Subramanyam highlighted two key metrics that are crucial to tracking TV, but lacking in the current market:

• De-duplication: Even though OTT viewing provides lots of data, it doesn't tell TV networks who those people are, or whether they are the same people watching on other screens. So you can end up counting the same people more than once.
• Co-viewing: OTT doesn't tell you how many people are watching at a given time. So you can end up counting a family of four watching TV together as a single stream/viewer.

"Those are the missing pieces," said Subramanyam. Nielsen doesn't have an answer, she added.

"I don't believe there is a live product today that can get at those numbers. Not to my knowledge."

This is where comScore, which has been left battered over the past several years amidst accounting scandals and leadership turmoil, sees a big opening.

The firm has been telling advertisers behind the scenes it has solutions for de-duplication and co-viewing. Nielsen is seen by some as behind on these crucial metrics.

"An industry challenge we are all facing now, is that currently there is no accurate measurement platform to account for de-duplicated reach and co-viewing, which is why we are excited to see what comScore has to offer with this new beta study," said Julie DeTraglia, head of research at Hulu, referring to comScore's just announced new product rollout.

Nielsen says it has offered viable products for both metrics for years.

"We've gained a lot of ground in capturing viewership in the OTT and connected TV in the past couple of years, working with clients in this space including Hulu, Roku and others to provide currency measurement across their platforms," said Kelly Abcarian, SVP of Product Leadership at Nielsen in a statement "It's not a surprise to see that that's where others are headed now as well."

"The key to audience measurement of OTT viewing is being able to actually measure people - and simply put, Nielsen is the only provider in the market that does this."

It's all very confusing.

comScore is back from the dead. And it sees a huge opening

A few months ago, Business Insider went deep on the state of TV measurement. comScore didn't get good reviews.

The company's recently installed CEO Bryan Wiener doesn't dispute that assessment. He knows comScore needed to get its act together.

A blunt digital ad veteran, Wiener recently unveiled a new product promising a way to count how many people see an advertisers' ad campaign across different platforms, reported the Wall Street Journal.

Wiener says that comScore has an aggressive product roadmap for the next few months, with plans to offer products for ad buyers and ad sellers that pull together data from cable set top boxes, digital panels, mobile devices, and other sources.

"Our number one priority across the entire business is to continue to establish comScore as currency and the new standard for cross-platform measurement, with a focus on premium video," Wiener wrote in a memo.

"We have a lot to prove, and we intend to prove it," Wiener told Business Insider. He also said that that push toward more targeted TV advertising plays to comScore's strengths, since it has access to a deep well of cable set top data.

To help his cause, Wiener has just tapped the highly respected Sarah Hofstetter as comScore's new president. Wiener and Hofstetter each had stints as CEO and chairman of the ad agency 360i at different periods.

Hofstetter starts at comScore next month. She knows she's facing a major challenge, but also sees a huge opening.

"As a buyer for many years, I know what a problem it is," she said. "People keep talking about it, how the industry needs better measurement. But how many people are tying to make a difference?"

Hofstetter sees an advantage in that she and Wiener come to comScore with fresh eyes, and no legacy loyalties to any particular products.

That should be music to the ears for media buyers, some of who believe that TV measurement is stuck in the the live linear-viewing era.

"Ratings are really just a brochure for sellers," said Steuer. "What people who buy media really care about is measuring impressions against individuals and households."

For that to work, Steuer says you need data from devices, servers and from panels so advertisers can calibrate matching people to devices. "And we still don't have that."

Hofstetter said she gets the perspective that TV ratings are less important in an on demand world, and the desire for new data sets.

"My issue as a buyer was always getting greater line of sight in the totality of my media plan," she said. "That's a continual challenge, not yesterday's war."

One thing that's already changing, according to clients, is comScore's focus on their needs. comScore's priorities were previously divided between sales and product, they said. Wiener's tried to change that.

"He's got a client mindset," said Kavita Vazirani, EVP, Strategic Insights and Analytics, NBCUniversal.

"He's said, 'Let's do what we're good at, and what our clients want. Then the product will follow.' And we're always happy to test new metrics tools. We need to lead and innovate on measurement, so we are always willing to participate in these sorts of tests."

It seems revealing that both Hulu and NBCU executives refer to comScore's new product as a test.

The jury is still out on the comeback.