Analyst warns it's 'game over' for Victoria's Secret

Getty Images/John Parra

• Victoria's Secret saw same-store sales slip in June.
• Jefferies analyst Randal Konik says the weak sales are reflective of more struggles to come at Victoria's Secret parent L Brands.
• L Brands shares were down more than 11% on Thursday.
• Watch L Brands trade in real time here.

The struggles keep coming for L Brands and its Victoria's Secret brand.

Victoria's Secret comparable sales fell 1% in June, and store-only comparables fell 6%. Those numbers were at least partially responsible for the more than 11% drop L Brands shares suffered on Thursday.

And the numbers are the lastest example of how Victoria's Secret is rapidly losing market share to competitors like American Eagle Outfitters' Aerie, and is turning to discounts and promotions to turn things around. The struggles have been a big reason for the 45% drop in L Brands shares this year.

"It's Game Over For Victoria's Secret," Jefferies analyst Randal Konik wrote in a note sent out to clients after the sales figures were released. Victoria's Secret made up 47% of total L Brands revenue in the first-quarter.

Konik thinks the bad sales numbers not only reflect that the brand is struggling now, but also that it is on a downward path going forward. "June sales showed VS struggling to drive traffic even when in semi-annual sale mode," he said. "The company admitted traffic was soft so the sale was extended and prices reduced further."

He added, "We believe this all means the brand is broken."

And while Bath and Body Works had a solid showing in June, that doesn't make Konik optimistic on L Brands. That's because the company's Pink brand is also ailing. "PINK is game over too," he said. "Even PINK is seeing comps decline for a number of months now which shows us the customer has moved on." The company does not break out monthly sales figures for Pink.

However, Konik suggests Aerie's increasing digital presence is a major catalyst for the switch in customer preference.

"Shares could be down another 40% from here," Konik concludes. He has a $23 price target, 28% below the stock's current level.

Markets Insider