Simply Put: A Deposit Dilemma — What's the fuss about a crisis in Indian bank deposits? Are mutual fund investments to blame?
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Sep 25, 2024, 15:19 IST
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Over the past few months, there’s been a lot of brouhaha about the lagging pace of So, the hypothesis is that people are choosing to invest more in mutual funds and the Indian
A crisis or a phase?
The situation largely saw cut-copy-paste in the first week of September as well, with loans registering a 13.3% YoY growth during the period, while deposits rose only 11.1%. This gap has only been widening for the last 3 years.
Since deposits are how banks gather assets to further lend and earn interest income as a consequence, even a slight dip could set the alarm bells ringing for banks, and rightfully so.
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But all said and done, is this really the reason why the rate of bank deposits is falling behind? SBI has dismissed this to be a “statistical myth”, and experts point out that since equity and fund houses also keep the cash in their respective bank accounts, there’s no cause for concern.
So, is financialization really to be blamed for the trailing tempo of deposits? Or is something else happening behind the scenes? We take a closer look:
First, are household deposits really slowing down? And is that a cause of concern?
Data from Motilal Oswal suggests the contrary. Deposits grew by around 10.4% between March 2020 and August 2024. Data from RBI also highlights that as of August 9, 2024, bank deposits witnessed a YoY growth of 10.8%. The loan-to-deposit ratio for the retail segment, which indicates what percentage of its total deposits the banks lend out as loans, has stayed at 77.5%, above the 77% mark for the tenth straight month.Also, we can’t forego the fact that the share of Indian households in bank deposits has indeed slowed down. However, data from Axis AMC shows that the dip is marginal—from 63% in 2022 to 62% in 2023 and 61% in 2024. What has slowed down even more considerably is the share of government deposits in the aggregate bank deposits, which has dipped from 14% in 2018 to 9% in 2024. So, it's not just household deposits, you see.
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Moreover, as of March 2024, the collective CASA ratio (current and
What is this financialisation of savings we are talking about?
Then again, there is no doubt about the growing affinity of Indians towards mutual funds and stock markets. Recent data from CBDT (Central Board of Direct Taxes) highlights that India’s net direct tax collection surged by around 22%, driven exclusively by the significant uptick in the collection of Securities Transaction Tax (STT), which doubled to Rs 26,154 crore, from Rs 13,352 crore in the year-ago period.Why does this matter? STT is levied when you buy or sell equity shares on stock exchanges, sell
Data from a ValueQuest report explains that over the last 20 years, the markets have handsomely rewarded the investors, generating over $900 billion in incremental value for them. This is the major driver behind the dramatic rise in investment flowing towards the equity markets.
There’s further proof of this budding romance, if you check the demat pudding. The number of demat accounts, which are a primary requisite for participating in the stock markets, also burgeoned by 42.3 lakh in August 2024, taking India’s total tally of demat accounts beyond 17 crore. To put this in perspective, this is almost equivalent to the population of just 8 nations in the world, including China, the US, Brazil and more.
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Vivek Iyer, Partner, Grant Thornton Bharat thinks it's rather important, as well. “Financialisation of household savings in India is an indication of deepening capital markets in the market, especially from a retail investor standpoint. Bank deposits with a modest rate of return are no longer the only option for savings for investors. Investors today have more avenues for wealth creation in the form of public capital markets, which have democratized wealth creation and provided equality of opportunity to retail investors”, he says.
Yes, Indians are investing more and more in the markets, and in mutual funds. But is it a sin to look out for inflation-beating returns, which the stock markets offer, and vanilla bank deposits don't? After all, the allure of 12-13% annual returns offered by
But all of this is not what is behind the slowdown. India is still a toddler in the school of savings financialization, with less than 10% of the population holding a demat account, and less than 5% of us saving in equities. That's a drop in the ocean of deposits, far inadequate to trigger a tsunami.
Tell me why lagging deposits have nothing to do with Indians investing more in mutual funds!
Says Shweta Rajani, Head - Mutual Funds, Anand Rathi Wealth Limited, “Households' equity holdings composition grew from 11.1% in FY 23 to 14.7% in FY 24. This trend reflects a growing awareness of investment options, empowering individuals to take control of their financial futures. Despite this transition towards equities, banks still hold a significant share of household financial savings—33.5% in FY24 compared to 34.9% in FY23”.Also, household savings and their subsequent financialization do not have much to do with deposit creation, which is entirely made by banks. What actually drives increased deposits is credit growth or increased lending. When interest rates are eased, people tend to borrow more and spend more, which circulates more money in the economy.
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For the past 4 years, RBI has been tightening the screws on interest rates, which raises the cost of borrowings, and makes it more expensive to take loans, putting a dampener on credit growth, but effectively curbing inflationary pressures.
The last time RBI cut the repo rate by 40 basis points was back in May 2020, 4 years ago. The lag in
But with the Fed recently setting a rate cut precedent by slashing 50 bps off its interest rate, RBI is expected to follow suit in the next MPC (Monetary Policy Committee) meeting, scheduled for November 2024.
A rate cut would ease the aforementioned high cost of borrowing, and increase loan-taking for corporates and institutional investors, thereby stoking consumption in the economy. And then, deposit creation in banks is likely to return to its former glory.
If not, then that would be a curious case to unravel! But that worry is for another day.
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Do you have insights or personal experience to share on your personal finances or money? Contact us at businessinsider@timesinternet.in.
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