All eyes on September auto sales — Cars and tractor sales likely to remain healthy but commercial vehicles may feel the pain

• Strong supply and retail inquiries could help keep the momentum for cars and tractors on track. Commercial vehicle sales are likely to remain under pressure
• The sales in festive-centric Southern markets at the start of the month offset lower retail sales in the northern and western markets on account of the Shraadh period and the 30-day Adhik Maas.
• The commercial vehicle segment remained grim owing to the pessimism around public transport, economic slowdown, and other reasons.
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The Indian automobile sector saw a strong turnaround led by the higher demand for passenger vehicles, farm equipment segments. The sales in festive-centric Southern markets at the start of the month offset lower retail sales in the northern and western markets. The northern and western markets saw lesser inquiries due to two inauspicious periods during this time - Shraadh and Adhik Maas.

The passenger vehicle segment is likely to see a strong demand revival on the back of supply chain normalization, strong sentiments from rural and semi-urban markets, and a rise in preference for personal mobility.

However, the commercial vehicle segment remains grim due to the pessimism around public transport, economic slowdown, excess capacity, and limited driver availability, the Nirmal Bang report said.

“We expect Tractor dispatches to continue to outperform other segments given the strong rural sentiments on the back of a good monsoon leading to better Kharif sowing,” the report added.

Maruti September auto sales expectations:

Maruti Suzuki India	September 2020 (expectations)	September 2019	YoY (%)
Domestic sales	140,583	115,452	21.80%
Exports	7,547	7,188	5%
Total sales	148,131	122,640	20.80%

Source: Nirmal Bang

M&M September auto sales expectations:

Mahindra & Mahindra	September 2020 (expectations)	September 2019	YoY (%)
Automotive	36,290	43,343	-16.30%
Farm Equipment	40,712	37,011	10%
Total Sales	77,002	80,354	-4.20%

Source: Nirmal Bang

Bajaj Auto September auto sales expectations:

Bajaj Auto	September 2020 (expectations)	September 2019	YoY (%)
Three-wheeler	45,128	65,305	-31%

Source: Nirmal Bang (*excludes two-wheeler data)

Ashok Leyland September auto sales expectations:

Ashok Leyland	September 2020 (expectations)	September 2019	YoY (%)
MHCV	2,998	4,744	-36.80%
LCV	4,238	4,036	5%
Total sales	7,235	8,780	-17.60%

Source: Nirmal Bang

Eicher Motors September auto sales expectations:

Eicher Motors	September 2020 (expectations)	September 2019	YoY (%)
VECV	2,832	3,673	-22.90%

Source: Nirmal Bang (*excludes two-wheeler data)

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