Festive season to drive over 15% growth in Indian Automobile Market, says report

India’s automobile sector is expected to get a boost during the upcoming festive season, with a forecasted growth of over 15%, particularly in the two-wheeler (2W) segment. According to an ANI report, this projection comes from a research report by Nuvama Wealth Investment Limited, which attributes the growth to increased customer enquiries and a resurgence in rural demand.

A key factor driving this surge is the anticipated revival of rural demand, which contributes more than 55% to the two-wheeler market. According to the report, rural areas are showing strong signs of recovery, and the increased enquiries suggest a positive outlook for sales. This bodes well for mass-market original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) such as TVS Motors, Hero MotoCorp, and Bajaj Auto.

The launch of new models, including the TVS Jupiter and Hero Xtreme 125R, is also expected to boost two-wheeler sales. In contrast, premium OEMs like Eicher Motors, which produces Royal Enfield motorcycles, may not experience the same level of demand growth.

In the passenger vehicle segment, rural demand accounts for over 35% of the market. While growth in this area is expected to be in the single digits, it is anticipated that utility vehicles (UVs) will outpace hatchbacks with double-digit growth. This trend will likely benefit manufacturers such as Mahindra & Mahindra and Tata Motors, with new models like the Mahindra Thar Roxx and Tata Currv expected to attract a significant share of customers.

On the other hand, Maruti Suzuki, traditionally a strong player in the hatchback segment, may see more subdued growth compared to its rivals in the UV space.

In preparation for the festive season, dealers have ramped up their inventories for both two-wheelers and passenger vehicles. According to the report, dealers have built up stocks for 1.5 to 2.5 months, signalling confidence in the market’s potential for increased sales. This build-up of inventory demonstrates that both manufacturers and dealers are optimistic about the surge in demand during the festive period.

While two-wheelers and passenger vehicles are set to lead the charge this festive season, the commercial vehicle (CV) market is expected to grow at a more modest pace. Demand for medium and heavy commercial vehicles (MHCVs) is projected to increase in the low single digits, primarily driven by replacement demand as freight availability improves across India.

Similarly, the tractor segment is expected to perform well over the next few years, with volume growth likely in the high single digits from FY24 to FY26. Tractors are seen as a strong performer in the long term, and the sector is poised to benefit from India’s agricultural demand and rural recovery.

Looking beyond the festive season, the report suggests that the long-term outlook for the two-wheeler and tractor segments remains robust. Historical sales cycles, which typically span two to four years, suggest that these sectors could reach new peaks in the coming years. As a result, the report forecasts high single-digit volume growth for two-wheelers and tractors through FY24-26, while passenger vehicles and commercial vehicles are expected to see low single-digit growth.

Overall, the Nuvama report paints a positive picture for the Indian automobile sector.

(With PTI inputs)