Disturbing before-and-after images show what the San Francisco Bay Area could look like in 2100

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Disturbing before-and-after images show what the San Francisco Bay Area could look like in 2100

San Francisco

REUTERS/Stephen Lam

A general aerial view of San Francisco is seen in San Francisco, California, U.S., October 5, 2017

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  • New research shows that the San Francisco Bay Area is sinking at a rate of up to 10 millimeters per year in certain areas.
  • Coupled with sea level rise, the research shows that much more of the area is vulnerable to flooding by the end of the century.
  • Beyond drastically reducing emissions, researchers say there's not much we can do to stop it.

As if there weren't enough reasons to leave the San Francisco Bay Area, parts of the peninsula are literally sinking into the Pacific Ocean, according to new research.

While scientists have long understood that the sea level is rising around the Bay Area, a new paper in the journal Science Advances shows that the land itself is actually sinking through a process called subsidence.

See below for maps showing just how flooded San Francisco could be by the end of the century.

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Using satellites to measure the rate at which the land is sinking, the researchers behind the paper found that much of the city's coast is sinking at a rate of 2 millimeters per year, with some sections of the city sinking up to 10 millimeters per year.

Using satellites to measure the rate at which the land is sinking, the researchers behind the paper found that much of the city's coast is sinking at a rate of 2 millimeters per year, with some sections of the city sinking up to 10 millimeters per year.

Subsidence occurs when the layers of the soil, or substrate, slowly collapse. Groundwater can "deflate" the land above it, with that process amplified in parts of the Bay Area built on landfill or Holocene-era mud deposits, according to the paper.

By combining this new data on subsidence with known data on sea level rise, the researchers came to the conclusion that much more of the San Francisco Bay Area will be underwater by the end of the century than previously thought.

By combining this new data on subsidence with known data on sea level rise, the researchers came to the conclusion that much more of the San Francisco Bay Area will be underwater by the end of the century than previously thought.
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To put that into perspective, the researchers generated maps — based on different emissions-reduction scenarios —combining elevation data with predicted sea level rise and subsidence rates.

To put that into perspective, the researchers generated maps — based on different emissions-reduction scenarios —combining elevation data with predicted sea level rise and subsidence rates.

They found that current flooding projections underestimate how much of the area will actually be underwater by 2100 — by 3.7% at the low end and up to a whopping 90.9% at the high end. The researchers predict that up to 165 square miles of the Bay Area will be vulnerable to flooding in the future.

These maps show areas of the city — with the airport at the center — susceptible to flooding under three different scenarios.

The top map shows how much land will be underwater when only accounting for land subsidence (LLS). The yellow map in the middle depicts sea level rise (SLR).

The third scenario, in red on the bottom, shows the combination of sea level rise with the highest predicted rate of subsidence rate — leaving much of San Francisco International Airport, Foster City, and Union City underwater.

These new maps have powerful ramifications for insurance companies and the highly-valued properties on the Bay Area's coastline.

These new maps have powerful ramifications for insurance companies and the highly-valued properties on the Bay Area's coastline.

The airport, as well as properties around the airport, are particularly vulnerable to flooding. Over 53 million people fly in and out of San Francisco every single day — and that number is only increasing.

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According to the researchers, there's not much we can do to stop the area from being flooded other than attacking the root causes of sea level rise by cutting emissions.

According to the researchers, there's not much we can do to stop the area from being flooded other than attacking the root causes of sea level rise by cutting emissions.

"There is no permanent solution to this problem," Shirzaei, one of the paper's authors told Wired. "The forces are immense, it's a very powerful process, the cost of really dealing with it is huge, and it requires long-term planning. I'm not so sure there's a good way to avoid it."

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