All eyes on China: Rush of foreign investors can do little to stave off a slowdown, says World Bank

Foreign investors are currently making a beeline for China, enthused by the gush of financial stimulus injected by the government into the Chinese economy. While this may have temporarily sent their stock markets soaring, a recent report by the World Bank notes that this might not be enough to push back the economic slowdown that has already set in. China's growth rate is projected to slack further to 4.3% in 2025, down from its present rate of 4.8%. The OECD also expects the country's growth to slow down to 4.5% in 2025

Experts believe that the recent economic push by the government, which includes lowering reserve requirement ratio (RRR) by 0.5% to 6.6%, lowering mortgage rates, injecting $142 billion into banks, among others, are too little to sustain long-term recovery. Notably, lowering RRR frees up $140 billion for banks to lend, while reducing mortgages and minimum down payments for housing purchases are directed to spur up the Chinese real estate segment.

Per Goldman Sachs, weak domestic demand, dwindling consumer confidence and spending and an endless real-estate crisis are some of the main reasons for the slowdown.The average Chinese citizen still grapples with job insecurity, stagnant salaries, and depreciating real estate and equity values.

For instance, China's last public holiday of the year, the Golden Week, which ended on October 7 and commemorates the nation's founding, saw 2% less spending per domestic trip, as compared to pre-pandemic levels. "Low tourism spending per head and subdued services prices highlight the still weak domestic demand and continued consumption downgrading in the country,” the analysts at GS noted.

Its all temporary

The Hang Seng index, which is up by 4.22% today, has been seeing a meteoric rise over the past few weeks. Inching up by a little over 24% over the last month, the Chinese markets have been seeing an significant influx of foreign investment, largely at the expense of other emerging markets like India.

Foreign investors had offloaded shares worth Rs 27,142 crore between the first and third of this month, after foreign investments reached a staggering record-high of Rs 93,538 crore in September, as per NSDL data. Over the last 10 days, FIIs have constantly been net sellers, while DIIs have been net buyers.

As of October 10th, DII (Domestic Institutional Investors) have put in Rs 50,183 crores in Indian markets, almost balancing out Rs 49,305.29 crore withdrawn by foreign investors.

But whether this trend of FII inflow in China continues will largely depend on the fundamentals their economy, an area where India has an edge, thanks to strong confidence of domestic investors.

Viram Shah, CEO of Vested Finance highlights that while the Hang Seng index's recent 26% surge over the last month has caught investors' attention, and while this bullish trend is expected to continue, driven by low Chinese stock valuations and hopes for economic improvement from government stimulus, there lies a long road ahead.

"Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) pulled out $5.4 billion from Indian equities over five consecutive sessions, ending Monday, October 7. While this suggests a possible rotation of funds from India to China, how long this shift will last will depend on the Chinese government’s ability to resolve the structural economic issues. While the market rally is encouraging, more policy steps are needed to boost economic activity and confidence in China", he added.