Exclusive app-tracking data for Netflix reveals the countries where usage spiked in March and suggests strong viewership heading into Q1 earnings

Netflix

"Love Is Blind" on Netflix.

• Traffic to Netflix's US registration website soared during the month of March, and Netflix app usage lifted in other parts of the world, data from analytics firm SimilarWeb that was share exclusively with Business Insider suggests.
• Data from SimilarWeb, which tracks activity on websites and apps, has helped analyze Netflix's subscriber growth trends in recent quarters.
• Visitors to Netflix's US sign-up page steadily ramped up year-over-year during the last three weeks of March, the firm found.
• The data also showed a spike in daily active users on the Netflix app during March in countries including Italy, India, and the Philippines, and helped drive a solid quarter for usage overall.
• Previously, Business Insider reported on data from subscription-measurement firm Antenna that showed the pace of US cancellations of Netflix fell during February and March.

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Traffic to Netflix's US registration website spiked during the month of March, as app usage lifted in other parts of the world, according to data from analytics firm SimilarWeb that was shared exclusively with Business Insider.

SimilarWeb, which tracks activity on websites and apps, tracked a steady ramp up in visits to the registration page on the Netflix.com US desktop site, where users can sign up for subscriptions.

By week ending, visits to Netflix's US sign-up page rose year over year by:

• March 8: 3%
• March 15: 39%
• March 22: 123%
• March 29: 123%
• April 5: 115%

Of course, people can visit Netflix's sign-up page without subscribing to its service. But the SimilarWeb data suggests that more people are at least entertained signing up for Netflix subscriptions, ahead of the company's first-quarter earnings announcement on April 21.

Another third-party measurement firm, Antenna, found that the pace of cancellations of Netflix subscriptions slowed in the US in February and March, Business Insider reported earlier this week. In mature markets for Netflix like the US, reducing churn can be crucial for subscriber growth.

Wall Street, for the most part, has been bullish on Netflix's prospects during the coronavirus outbreak. Netflix stock rose about 27% this year, while the S&P 500 index fell roughly 14%. Investors are optimistic about Netflix despite the broader economic downturn because people who are spending more time at home could boost streaming viewership.

Not all investors share this view. Analysts at Needham wrote in mid-March that Netflix could also become viewed as a luxury some people can't afford, as unemployment rises around the world. That could drive more cancellations and reduce revenue growth.

Netflix, for its part, forecasted in January that it would add 7 million paid subscribers globally during its first quarter, down from 9.6 million paid subscribers a year earlier. It has not updated that forecast.

Analysts at Wall Street firm Cowen raised on Wednesday their forecast for Netflix's first-quarter subscriber additions to 7.1 million, based on higher expectations subscriber growth for the US and Canada. Chief content officer Ted Sarandos told CNN on March 22 that viewing on Netflix was up, and Cowen's own surveys and analysis of Google Search Trends data suggested that interest in Netflix was growing and the service was the top streaming choice among viewers using TV sets.

Netflix app usage also spiked during the month of March in places like Italy, India, and the Philippines, the SimilarWeb data found

SimilarWeb also estimates average daily active users and other activity on apps and websites, through a panel of hundreds of millions of Android phones and tablets globally.

It tracks mobile usage of the Netflix app in 30 international regions including India, Brazil, the UK, and Malaysia, where it has a sample size that makes up a statistically significant portion of the local device population. It also tracks usage of the Netflix app in the US, but Android devices are the minority there and the data capture a snapshot of overall usage.

The data showed a spike in usage of the Netflix app during the month of March in some markets around the world and was strong through the first quarter of 2020.

Overall, daily active users on the Netflix app climbed nearly 9% quarter over quarter during three-month period, and rose about 7% year over year, SimilarWeb found. Outside of the US, where Netflix's largest growth targets are, Netflix's daily active users rose about 11% quarter over quarter, and 9% year over year.

Ruobing Su/Business Insider

Part of the first quarter increase was driven by an increase in daily active users outside of the US during the month of March. In countries including Greece, Italy, the Philippines, Portugal, Taiwan, and India daily active users spiked 8% or more during the month. The lift came as more parts of the world went into lockdown due to the coronavirus pandemic.

"For the majority of Q1, growth globally was fairly steady," Ed Lavery, the director of investor solutions at SimilarWeb, wrote in an email. "However, in the last two weeks of March we have seen a steep growth, which will make end of quarter subs look attractive, but may be misleading when looking at the quarter as whole."

SimilarWeb's data has helped analyze Netflix's subscriber trends in recent quarters. It projected Netflix usage was waning in key international markets during the second quarter of 2019, before Netflix missed its subscriber growth targets for that period. It also indicated that international usage rebounded during the third quarter, when Netflix beat subscriber-growth estimates internationally.

In other key markets for Netflix, such as Brazil, Mexico, the US, and the UK, daily active users were highest in January, and remained relatively steady throughout the quarter. Overall, Netflix saw only a 1.5% lift in March outside the US, partially because of the strong January in many markets.

The first quarter has historically been a strong one for Netflix. Netflix marked an all-time high in paid subscriber growth during the first quarter of 2019. Its content slate this past first quarter didn't disappoint, either. The service put out global hits like "Tiger King," "The Circle," and "Love Is Blind," and released new seasons of fan favorites like "Elite," "Narcos: Mexico," and "Ozark."

Here's the full breakdown from SimilarWeb on the 14 markets where Netflix's daily active users in March:

• Greece: 23% increase in daily active users in March 2020, compared with the average from January and February
• Philippines: 17%
• Italy: 13%
• Portugal: 12.5%
• Taiwan: 10%
• India: 8%
• Thailand: 7%
• Argentina: 6%
• South Africa: 4%
• France: 3%
• Spain: 3%
• Indonesia: 2%
• Japan: 1.5%
• Canada: 1.3%
• Mexico: 1%

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For more about how the coronavirus pandemic is affecting media, see our coverage on BI Prime:

• Exclusive data suggests Netflix was hurt by the launch of Disney Plus, but has rebounded in recent weeks: The pace of Netflix's US churn, or cancellations, fell in both February and March, suggested data from subscription-measurement firm Antenna.
  
• The winners and losers among 11 Disney businesses, as analysts slash the projected value of the media giant's parks and raise expectations for Disney Plus: Wells Fargo analysts are valuing Disney's businesses at 26% less than they were before the coronavirus outbreak, according to a report.
• 40 advertising execs who manage $90 billion in spending describe how they're shifting their 2020 budgets in a new report. Here are 4 key takeaways for the TV industry: Connected-TV platforms like Roku and Hulu are expected to see the biggest gains in TV advertising, and Disney is the best-positioned cable-network group.
  
• The key factors analysts are watching at 5 major media companies including Disney and Fox to help determine whether their stock will keep falling or rebound: Combined, Disney, Fox, ViacomCBS, Discovery, and AMC Networks lost $92 billion in market value since the last market high on February 19, largely thanks to Disney.
• Disney has closed its US parks 'until further notice' and risks losing $1.5 billion in revenue per month they are shut, analysts say: Disney is extending "until further notice" its closures of its US theme parks, Disney World and Disneyland, because of the coronavirus pandemic, the company announced on March 27.
• Analysts lay out the financial damage each of Disney's businesses could face, as it closes parks 'until further notice' and delays films: Disney is one of the media companies most exposed the impact of the coronavirus because of its large theme-park and theatrical businesses.
• Why analysts say Disney and Discovery are the media giants most threatened by the coronavirus, but Comcast could fare better: Companies that generate significant shares of their revenue from theme parks, films, and advertising are most sensitive to the pandemic and the economic downturn it could ignite.

Disclosure: Mathias Döpfner, CEO of Business Insider's parent company, Axel Springer, is a Netflix board member.

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