Goldman Sachs Forecasts More Than 100% Upside In HPCL, BPCL And IOC

Goldman Sachs in its recent report on oil marketing companies (OMCs) has said that any policy move towards de-regulation of diesel prices, giving OMCs the freedom to change retail prices in accordance with international oil prices and US$/INR, is a key catalyst for OMCs.

The global investment bank has a 'buy' call on OMCs such as HPCL and BPCL as Goldman believes that they are good ways to take exposure to medium- or long-term oil demand growth in the country.

"We believe benefits to state-owned upstream will accrue slowly as the government reduces its subsidy and natural gas price hikes on current volumes could be lower than consensus expectations," said the Goldman report.

The global investment bank also sees a major share price upside of 102% to 263% for OMCs as divestment plays under their blue sky scenario.

Goldman estimates that losses on retail diesel sales are now down to Rs0.8/litre, from Rs 1.3/litre in the first fortnight of August 2014 and Rs 2.5/ litre in the second fortnight of July 2014.

"This implies we could effectively be done with the monthly cycle of diesel price increases in the next two months and diesel will be market priced," it said.