Here come the Fed minutes ...

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Here come the Fed minutes ...

janet yellen watch time

Yuri Gripas/Reuters

Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen looks at her watch after G-20 family photo during the IMF/World Bank spring meetings in Washington, U.S., April 21, 2017.

The Federal Reserve at 2 p.m. ET will release minutes of the policy meeting it held in September.

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The minutes will reiterate the thinking behind the Fed's key decisions at that meeting, including no change to the benchmark interest rate. They may also provide some detail on the central bank's inflation outlook and its expectations for a third rate increase later this year.

At the meeting, the Fed confirmed it would soon start shrinking the $4.5 trillion balance sheet it grew after the recession. The Fed bought Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities to keep borrowing costs low, and will gradually stop reinvesting these securities as they mature.

Besides this major policy shift, another big topic on the Fed's agenda was inflation, specifically the lack of it. The textbook stipulation that low unemployment should push up worker pay, spending, and subsequently prices, is not showing up as obviously as it should.

Low inflation, even with higher energy prices and a weaker dollar is "more of a mystery," Fed Chair Janet Yellen said during a post-meeting press conference. "I will not say that the Committee clearly understands what the causes are of that."

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The minutes come two days before Fed Vice-Chairman Stanley Fischer is set to step down; he cited "personal reasons" in a September 6 statement. And, President Donald Trump said two weeks ago Friday that he would make an announcement on the next Fed chair in two to three weeks. Yellen's first four-year term ends in February.

More to come ...