Here comes the jobs report ...
What's at stake here is confirmation that a hiring slowdown has not hit the US economy. In May, just 38,000 jobs were added, excluding the impact of the 35,000 Verizon workers who were on strike.Economists project that the Bureau of Labor Statistics' data out at 8:30 a.m. ET will show that there were 180,000 nonfarm payrolls created in June, according to Bloomberg.Advertisement
"Last month's jobs report caught most economists by surprise, and the U.S. is waiting for the other shoe to drop, looking for signs of a broader economic slowdown," said Glassdoor Chief Economist Andrew Chamberlain in a preview.
Even adding the striking workers back to May payrolls - which could be revised higher by the BLS on Friday - left the pace of job creation quite low."However, we haven't yet seen that smoking gun showing the U.S. economy is barreling toward a slowdown," Chamberlain said. "Simply put, the labor market is remarkably healthy with no clear signs of an impending recession on the horizon."
The unemployment rate is forecast to inch up to 4.8% from a cycle low of 4.7%. It dropped in May because of a fall in the labor force participation rate, which slipped to 62.6%, the lowest level of the year. Economists will be looking for evidence that Americans are not becoming disenchanted with the labor market, even though participation is largely driven by demographics.Economists are looking for average hourly earnings growth of 0.2% month-on-month, and 2.7% year-on-year, a post-crisis high that would be evidence of further labor-market tightening. Ahead of the jobs report, futures were slightly higher and Treasurys were little changed. Advertisement
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