HTC Vive Head says that by 2020 VR Headsets may sell more than Smartphones

While the smartphone market continues to be strong, some analysts say the market will reach saturation in the next three to four years. The projections show that while an estimated 1.5 billion devices will likely be shipped this year alone, by 2020 smartphone shipments will fall in a range between 1.75 to 2 billion handsets. This tepid growth would see the VR market surpass smartphone sales numbers.

Wang Tsung-ching, Head of Vive at HTC China, has said that the fast-growing virtual reality headset market can outstrip the smartphone market in as little as four years. However, if the numbers are to be believed, the VR headset market must grow like no tech has ever come close to in the past. Even if there is a sign of slump in the global smartphone market (which shows no signs of slowdown), over 1.5 billion VR headsets have to be shipped in 2020. That seems a bit far sighted given the current sales numbers.

However, while these projections may seem impossible, if smartphone companies like Apple and HTC keep offering free Gear VR headsets with their new smartphones, the number of VR headset shipments could shoot up exponentially in a very short period of time. Also, Wang Tsung-ching considered the sub-$10 headset market, ie. Google Cardboard, as part of his calculations. Now Google has already shipped over 5 million headsets worldwide, and other companies have quickly emulated the affordable VR headset model.

Now its understandable why Wang Tsung-ching is so bullish about VR units, he’s the head of HTC’s Vive. However, while there surely will be a time soon when every smartphone will ship with its own proprietary VR headset, judging that the PC market to 30 years to peak, and the notebook market is still going strong, the projections may be around half a decade ahead of themselves.

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