Local emissions in most NCAP cities to rise by at least 11% by 2030, shows study

Local emissions in most cities covered under the National Clean Air Programme (NCAP) are projected to rise by at least 11% by 2030 compared to 2019 levels, according to a new study. The study, conducted by the think tank Center for Study of Science, Technology and Policy (CSTEP), examined 76 out of the total 131 NCAP cities over a period of 2.5 years.

The findings revealed that only 8 of the 76 cities are likely to achieve a 40% reduction in four major pollutants -- PM10, PM2.5, sulphur dioxide, and nitrogen oxides -- by 2030, compared to their 2019 levels.

"Our study shows that most cities covered under the NCAP will not be able to achieve a 40% reduction in local emissions even by 2030," said Anirban Banerjee, project lead at CSTEP.

Local emissions are expected to increase by 11 to 45% in the studied cities by 2030, relative to 2019 levels, significantly worsening pollution, the study said.

The study estimated the share of the four major pollutants for the base year 2019 and projected their contributions from different sources until 2030. These outcomes were validated against transport and domestic fuel consumption surveys conducted in over 70% of the studied cities.

The findings suggest that without targeted interventions, local emissions will likely rise by 2030. The study recommends prioritising targeted interventions for major emission sources such as industries, transportation, construction, and open burning in these cities to meet NCAP targets and achieve cleaner air.

A portal visualising the study's findings will be launched on Wednesday at the sixth edition of the India Clean Air Summit (ICAS), a premier conference on air pollution organised by CSTEP, taking place from August 26-30.

Launched in 2019, the NCAP is India's first national initiative to set clean air targets, aiming for a 20-30 % reduction in PM10 pollution by 2024, with 2017 as the base year. The revised target is a 40% reduction by 2026, using 2019-20 as the base year.