The coronavirus model used by the White House now estimates 147,000 deaths by August — almost double the estimate predicted 15 days ago

The coronavirus model used by the White House now estimates 147,000 deaths by August — almost double the estimate predicted 15 days ago
Michael Neel, funeral director of of All Veterans Funeral and Cremation, wearing full PPE, looks at the U.S. flag on the casket of George Trefren, a 90 year old Korean War veteran who died of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in a nursing home, in Denver, Colorado, April 23, 2020.Rick Wilking/Reuters
  • The leading US model on the impact of the coronavirus now estimates 147,000 deaths by August.
  • On April 27, the model estimated only 74,000 deaths.
  • As states reopen, and social distancing is reduced or eliminated, many experts worry there could be a resurgence of cases and a fresh wave of deaths.
  • Visit Business Insider's homepage for more stories.

The White House model used to predict the impact of the coronavirus pandemic estimates that there will be 147,040 deaths from COVID-19 by August.

On April 27, for comparison, the model estimated a little over 74,000 deaths, as Business Insider previously reported.

As of May 12, the US has had over 83,000 deaths so far due to COVID-19, with more than half of its 50 states beginning to reopen their economies.
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The model looks at how and when the coronavirus will overburden the healthcare system, using available data — and considering active social distancing measures — to predict the number of infections and deaths.

Experts including Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation's top infectious disease expert, have warned that reopening the country too early could lead to needless deaths.

Fauci warned the Senate on Tuesday that states reopening too quickly could lead to a new wave of infections and deaths.
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"There is no doubt — when you pull back on mitigation, you will see some cases appear," he said via video stream. "It's the ability and the capability of responding to those cases with good identification, isolation, and contact tracing."

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