scorecard
  1. Home
  2. international
  3. news
  4. Ukraine is proving it can kill Russia's most valuable officers even when they think they are safe

Ukraine is proving it can kill Russia's most valuable officers even when they think they are safe

Tom Porter   

Ukraine is proving it can kill Russia's most valuable officers even when they think they are safe
LifeInternational3 min read
  • Ukraine killed a senior Russian officer in a long-range missile strike this week.
  • Lt Gen Oleg Tsokov is the latest in a series of senior Russian officers killed in Ukraine.

On Tuesday, reports began to circulate on Russian Telegram channels of the death of another top Russian military officer in Ukraine.

Lt Gen Oleg Tsokov was killed in a Ukrainian strike using a UK-made Storm Shadow missile, said the reports, that were later confirmed by state media outlets and officials.

The blast hit a hotel housing Russian officers in the occupied city of Berdiansk, far from the front lines.

Ukraine's success rate in assassinating Russia's generals has been astonishing. According to Japanese intelligence in February, 20 Russian generals have been killed so far in the war, Nikkei reported.

So what's behind the high Russian death toll?

Ian Williams, an analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said that problems with Russia's command structure, and sophisticated weapons like the Storm Shadow, were among the factors.

"I think the reason many high-level Russian officers have died through much of the war is their proximity to the front, due to the Russian military's problems with command and control and delegation," he said.

A rigid Russian command structure means that junior officers often feel unable to make independent decisions, and morale on the front line is said to be poor, meaning senior officers take direct control and expose themselves to danger.

Poor Russian communications systems also played a role. One Russian general was killed in the early months after he using a regular cellphone which was easily traced using cellphone data. The Kremlin has since banned the use of the devices on the front line.

But even when Russian generals are positioned well behind the front line, as was the case with Tsokov, Ukraine's long-range precision weapons mean they can still be pursued.

The recent acquisition of Storm Shadow missiles means Ukraine can reach Russian top brass in places that used to be safe. The missiles have a range of 150 miles, almost triple that of the missiles Ukraine was previously using.

"In general, having the ability to conduct deep precision strikes, combined with good intelligence and a rapid targeting cycle, can open opportunities for strikes on very specific targets, including individuals," said Williams.

According to a senior Japanese intelligence official cited by Nikkei, strong local intelligence appeared to be another key factor behind the assassinations.

"There may be informants in the two eastern regions giving information to Ukraine," the source told the publication, referring to the Donetsk and Luhansk regions occupied by Russia.

One assassination of a senior officer has taken place inside Russia's borders, which may indicate the increasing confidence Ukraine has in targeting Russian military leaders away from the battlefield.

According to reports, Capt. Second Rank Stanislav Rzhitsky, a former submarine commander, was gunned down while jogging in the Russian city of Krasnodar this week. Rzhitsky had posted his jogging route on the app Strava, per Russian media. Russian officials say a man they've arrested on suspicion of the murder has admitted to working for Ukrainian intelligence.

The killings follow wider instability that has shaken the Russian military, with its former supreme commander in Ukraine, General Sergei Surovikin, rumored to have been arrested following the failed Wagner uprising.

Williams said that currently most Storm Shadow strikes seem to be hitting their targets, but Russia would likely try to counter this by bolstering its air defense and moving command centers further away.

He also pointed to the fact that Ukraine did not have access to deep stockpiles of Storm Shadow missiles, its key weapon for long-range assassinations.

However pulling back command centers in itself carries risks, he said, allowing Ukraine to disrupt Russian defenses.

"It becomes easier to disrupt communications, and Russian commanders have generally relied on proximity to maintain control of their units," he said.


Advertisement

Advertisement