Price target: $209
Rating: Neutral
"Heading into C1Q, we're most focused on the trajectory of iPhone following the sharp drop-off in Dec; we expect iPhone units/sales of 41.8mn/$30.6bn (-20%/-18% y/y), though believe the worst is likely behind us this cycle supported by 'less bad' supply chain data points," analysts led by Matthew Cabral wrote to clients last week.
The Greater China region is an important "swing factor" for the company right now, the analysts said. While near-term pressures like macroeconomic weakness and trade tensions have somewhat lifted, "underlying structural headwinds remain," they added.
The analysts said they're staying on the sidelines and waiting for a better entry point with shares now up 46% from their January low, and near a peak multiple of 15.5x forward earnings.
Price target: $234 (upped from $220)
Rating: Overweight
"Despite the 40%+ rally from the lows following the December quarter pre-announcement on Jan. 2nd, we see a number of reasons to remain bullish," analysts led by Katy Huberty wrote in a note to clients last week.
The analysts are encouraged by a few elements:
"Lastly, our conversations with institutional investors suggest most are uninvolved or underweight/short despite the likelihood of Services growth re-accelerating, iPhone declines moderating,and continued share price support from the company buying back stock," they added.
Price target: $220
Rating: Buy
"In our opinion, investors expect fundamentals to be weak heading into AAPL earnings despite the recent move in the stock," analysts led by Wamsi Mohan wrote in a note to clients last week.
Investors will likely be focused on factors including gross margins (expected to be low given Apple's discounting to clear iPhone inventory), services growth expectations of around 20%, overall revenue within the guided range of $55 billion to $59 billion, updated demand commentary from China and other emerging markets, and any color on the company's Qualcomm settlement.
Price target: $235 (upped from $215)
Rating: Buy
"Off low expectations, results/guide should be fine," analysts led by Timothy Arcuri wrote in a note to clients last week.
"iPhone mix remains challenging, but FX headwinds also start to abate in June. The big unknown remains China and 3rd party gov't data did not show much iPhone improvement post-CNY," though the worst seems to be behind investors, they added.
Price target: N/A
Rating: Market perform
"While we had been seriously concerned that Apple would miss the CY20 5G cycle, that has now changed after their settlement with Qualcomm," analysts led by Chris Caso wrote in a note to clients last week.
"Certainly Apple has to contend with a serious deterioration in mix (which causes us to cut our FY20 estimates), and the math just doesn't work for a Services bull thesis."
While firm is encouraged by the the potential for a 5G phone, pointing to that as a bright spot in an uncertain Apple narrative, they're concerned that the iPhone mix "deteriorating."
Price target: $190
Rating: Market perform
Analysts led by Aaron Rakers said in a note last week that they "struggle to look past the weak iPhone demand-related data points and recommend a cautious stance" into quarterly earnings.
They're encouraged by the company's Qualcomm settlement, their belief that iPhone weakness concerns are largely priced into the stock, and Apple's expansion into subscription services.
"The rate of expansion of Apple's installed base should remain a key focus," the analysts added.
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