Morgan Stanley predicts how our TV habits will shift in the next 5 years, and Netflix is a big winner

Netflix

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• Netflix is expected to account for 20% of online video consumption by 2023, according to a Morgan Stanley report distributed on Thursday.
• Time spent on traditional TV viewing in the US will fall to 42% as online viewing gains ground, the Morgan Stanley analysts predicted.

Netflix is expected to continue its rapid growth in the next few years, and traditional TV will continue to suffer.

In a report released on Thursday, Morgan Stanley analysts predicted that Netflix will account for 20% of online video consumption in the US by 2023. Hulu will gain ground but remain much smaller, the analysts predicted.

Time spent on traditional TV will drop to 42% of total video consumption in the US. Netflix has gained ground on traditional TV every year since 2013, as seen in the graph below.

Morgan Stanley

Overall online-video viewing has increased over time, and is expected to be on par with the amount of traditional TV viewing in the next few years.

Netflix said that it serves 100 million hours of video per day, and that it accounted for 10% of TV viewing in the US in 2018 during its earnings call this month.

A number of factors contribute to Netflix's pull with audiences. There was an all-time high of 495 scripted original TV shows in 2018, with online services like Netflix contributing 160 of them. Audience demand for Netflix originals is expected to surpass that of licensed content this year, according to an October report from research firms Parrot Analytics and S&P Global Market Intelligence.

The top five original streaming shows in 2018 were all Netflix series, according to Parrot.

But it will face added competition in 2019, as Disney and AT&T release their own Netflix competitors.

As Netflix continues to gain share of video viewership, the big question will be whether it can get its cash burn, which reached $3 billion in 2018, under control.

Netflix recently increased its prices for new users and will for current users within the next three months, and it's most popular plan is now at $13. Netflix has said it will likely continue to raise prices, but will face a bigger challenge in retaining subscribers when the price hits $15 a month, according to a recent Business Insider survey.