Morgan Stanley says industrial companies will dominate the market going forward - here are the 8 stocks they love the most

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Morgan Stanley says industrial companies will dominate the market going forward - here are the 8 stocks they love the most

caterpillar equipment

Reuters / Mike Blake

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  • Morgan Stanley is the most bearish firm on Wall Street when it comes to equities, but that doesn't mean the firm thinks the market is completely devoid of money-making opportunities.
  • The firm is bullish on the industrial sector, and has identified eight stocks it thinks will outperform the broader market going forward.

Morgan Stanley is the most bearish firm on Wall Street right now when it comes to stocks.

Over the past few weeks, it's made no bones about what it calls a "rolling bear market" - or the the type of long, drawn-out pullback that infects sectors one by one.

The firm has been particularly pointed in its comments about tech, which has led major indexes to record highs, but is now seen by Morgan Stanley as vulnerable to a sharp sell-off.

But this doesn't necessarily mean the firm thinks all areas of the stock market should be off-limits. It just means investors need to take a deep breath and look at industries that are either depressed, underappreciated, or both.

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In the eyes of the equity strategists at Morgan Stanley, the industrial sector fits this to a tee. The firm argues that industrials possess the appealing combination of attractive valuation and future profit upside.

On the valuation front, industrials have become cheap relative to the broader market, even after a massive spike following the 2016 election. This dynamic is shown in the chart below.

Screen Shot 2018 09 13 at 3.36.38 PM

Morgan Stanley

In terms of earnings growth, Morgan Stanley notes that upward revisions have diverged from actual performance, which suggests a catch-up is coming. The firm also forecasts that industrial companies will sink enough money into capital expenditures to keep profits growing, even as late-cycle pressure mount.

Morgan Stanley has even gone as far as to highlight eight industrial stocks it loves, and expects to outperform going forward.

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Here are the firm's single stock picks, which can help you ride the predicted wave higher in industrials:

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Alcoa

Alcoa

Ticker: AA

Market cap: $7.8 billion

Price target: $57

Rationale: "After a post-2Q18 sell off, we see compelling valuation and a constructive 4Q18 setup."

Source: Morgan Stanley

American Axle

American Axle

Ticker: AXL

Market cap: $2 billion

Price target: $22

Rationale: "AXL plans to drive leverage down from ~3x to ~2x by the end of 2019, with the potential for share buybacks in 2020+."

Source: Morgan Stanley

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Caterpillar

Caterpillar

Ticker: CAT

Market cap: $84 billion

Price target: $187

Rationale: "With trade and peak cycle fears overblown and ~30-40% of the portfolio at trough, we see an attractive set up."

Source: Morgan Stanley

Ford

Ford

Ticker: F

Market cap: $37 billion

Price target: $15

Rationale: "F represents a cheap call option on restructuring, trucks, data, and SOTP potential."

Source: Morgan Stanley

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Honeywell

Honeywell

Ticker: HON

Market cap: $122 billion

Price target: $175

Rationale: "HON represents a long-term rerating opportunity as the company spins out slower growth assets and emphasizes tech differentiation, creating a 2x GDP growth algorithm in a sector where growth is increasingly scarce."

Source: Morgan Stanley

Knight-Swift

Knight-Swift

Ticker: KNX

Market cap: $6.4 billion

Price target: $55

Rationale: "KNX's current risk reward is very attractive given favorable cyclical trends (upcoming peak season and difficult driver market), potential upside to SWFT turnaround synergies, and cheap valuation (KNX is trading at 2008/09 recession levels)."

Source: Morgan Stanley

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Southwest Airlines

Southwest Airlines

Ticker: LUV

Market cap: $36 billion

Price target: $67

Rationale: "High quality characteristics (above-average margins, shareholder friendly approach, IG B/S) are intact."

Source: Morgan Stanley

United Technologies

United Technologies

Ticker: UTX

Market cap: $107 billion

Price target: $160

Rationale: "Given the rising potential for a restructuring, option value for the GTF, and accretion from M&A, we remain constructive on UTX."

Source: Morgan Stanley

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