Every job lost in the pandemic will come back by the middle of next year, the government's official scorekeeper says
CBOis forecasting a quick economic rebound, partly because of Biden's stimulus.
- US GDP will expand 7.4% this year, the highest level since the Ronald Reagan administration.
- It revised its forecast to account for Biden's stimulus and easing of social distancing restrictions.
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The CBO said unemployment would fall to a near pre-pandemic low of 3.6% on average next year, compared to the February 2020 level of 3.5%. It also said the budget deficit - the gap between federal spending and tax revenue - will reach $3 trillion this year, the product of aggressive stimulus aimed at shoring up a pandemic-battered
The organization revised its estimates to account for three factors:
- The stimulus law, which is expected to strengthen output.
- A quicker return to normalcy as social distancing restrictions are relaxed.
- Larger consumer spending due to household savings, which grew during the pandemic (under President
Donald Trumpas well).
CBO analysts are forecasting America's gross domestic product to grow by 7.4% this year, the fastest pace of growth since the Reagan administration. But it will drop to 3.1% in 2022, a still vigorous level of expansion. The deficit in 2022 will taper down to $1.2 trillion, but continue to swell after that.
Biden approved a rescue package earlier this year that provided $1,400 stimulus checks, a renewal of $300 weekly unemployment benefits, and emergency assistance to state and local governments. That came on the heels of a $900 billion coronavirus relief package that President Trump ultimately signed into law late in his term.
The CBO did revise one metric upward: inflation. It expects inflation to reach 2.8% this year before leveling off to 2% in 2022 and for much of the remaining decade. This forecast aligns with that of the Federal Reserve.
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