The rise in global crude oil prices may make India's April-June exports data look really good

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The rise in global crude oil prices may make India's April-June exports data look really good
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The country's total merchandise exports are projected to grow 70.1 per cent to USD 87.2 billion in the first quarter of fiscal 2021-22 from USD 51.3 billion in the year, Export-Import Bank of India (India Exim Bank) said. The non-oil exports may jump 68.5 per cent to USD 78.26 billion in the April-June period as compared with USD 46.4 billion in the corresponding period of fiscal 2020-21, it said.

"The sharp rise in India's exports could be attributed largely to the low base effect, pick up in global oil prices, and strong growth in advanced economies," according to a quarterly forecast by India Exim Bank.

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While the peak of the second wave of infections of the COVID-19 pandemic witnessed in the country during the end April-May 2021 could have subdued exports during the quarter to some extent, outbound shipments from India have nevertheless been relatively resilient, it said.

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The forecasts are based on India Exim Bank's Export Leading Index (ELI) model, which has shown an upward movement during the same quarter, it said.
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