- The nationwide outbreak of COVID-19 has radically transformed American society as schools close, workers are sent home, and millions find themselves suddenly out of a job.
- Insider conducted a poll asking 1,132 respondents: "If you had to estimate, when do you think that the coronavirus situation will be over, in that schools, restaurants, and businesses will be widely open again?"
- Of those who responded, 72% think the coronavirus outbreak will level off and US society will be largely re-open for business sometime between April 1 and July 1.
- While the median Republican thought the crisis would be over in 62 days, or about two months, the median Democrat estimated that the outbreak will end in 91 days, or in about three months.
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The nationwide outbreak of COVID-19, the disease caused by the novel coronavirus, has already radically transformed American society as states order schools to close, require non-essential workers to stay at home, and Americans practice social distancing as much as possible.
Given the constant and overwhelming influx of information from public officials providing their own estimations and opinions on when society can get back to normal, Insider ran a poll this week asking Americans when they believe the outbreak will end.
We asked 1,132 respondents: "If you had to estimate, when do you think that the coronavirus situation will be over, in that schools, restaurants, and businesses will be widely open again?"
Overall, 72% of Americans think the coronavirus outbreak will level off and US society will be largely re-open for business sometime between April 1 and July 1. The median respondent said a date 69 days away.
A quarter of Americans, or 25%, think the crisis will mostly be over by May 1, 20% think it will end by June 1, 11% think it will be over by July 1, and 8% think it will end by August 1.
The survey also found stark differences along partisan lines between self-identified Democrats and Republicans in their expectations of how long the crisis will last.
Like Trump, Republicans are much more optimistic than both Americans as a whole and especially Democrats in their estimations of when the crisis will end and the economy can start getting back on track.
While the median Republican thought the crisis would be over in 62 days, or about two months, the median Democrat estimated that the outbreak will end in 91 days, or in about three months.
In total, 82% of self-identified Republicans estimated the outbreak will be over between April 1 and July 1, compared to 64% of Democrats.
In the survey, 26% of Republicans estimated the outbreak will end and society will re-open by April 1, 29% thought the outbreak will end by May 1, 17% estimate it will end by June 1, and 10% believe it will be over by July 1.
Democrats, however, are much more cautious and pessimistic than Republicans in their estimations of when the outbreak will die down and society can start getting back to normal.
In the survey, just 10% of Democrats estimate the outbreak will end by April 1, 21% think it will be over by May 1, 22% estimate it will end by June 1, 13% set the end date at July 1, and an additional 11% estimate the outbreak will end by August 1.
Despite the fact that many public health experts warn that the virus is still yet to reach its peak in many places, President Donald Trump and some top economic officials are eager for the virus to end and get people back in the workforce to boost the struggling US economy.
The outbreak has already wreaked havoc on the US economy. While the travel and hospitality industries were initially hardest-hit, workers in every subset of the economy from food service, retail, entertainment, and much more are now facing layoffs or cuts to their hours, with unemployment claims projected to surge into the millions per week in March
In a Tuesday coronavirus town hall on Fox News, Trump set a highly ambitious target date of Easter on April 12 to re-start the economy and begin sending Americans back to work, despite the crisis continuing to worsen in many states.
But Democrats, and even some Republican governors of hard-hit states, warn that the worst of the outbreak is still yet to come, and Americans need to practice social distancing and stay home as much as possible now - to prepare to eventually go back into the workforce.
Mike DeWine, the Republican governor of Ohio, differed with Trump by warning in a Wednesday tweet that he doesn't expect the virus to peak until May 1.
SurveyMonkey Audience polls from a national sample balanced by census data of age and gender. Respondents are incentivized to complete surveys through charitable contributions. Generally speaking, digital polling tends to skew toward people with access to the internet. SurveyMonkey Audience doesn't try to weigh its sample based on race or income. A total of 1,132 respondents were collected March 25, 2020, a margin of error plus or minus 3 percentage points with a 95% confidence level.
Get the latest coronavirus analysis and research from Business Insider Intelligence on how COVID-19 is impacting businesses.
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