The debate in Nevada was a feisty one, with candidates who have formed tenuous alliances at best or an unsteady detente at worse finally bringing the heat.
At the center of it all was Sen. Elizabeth Warren, whose national popularity but mixed performances in Iowa and New Hampshire have put her in a position of needing to win as soon as possible or exit the race. Warren landed serious blows on colleague Sen. Amy Klobuchar, Mayor Pete Buttigieg, ally Sen. Bernie Sanders, and newcomer Mayor Michael Bloomberg, a serious shift in strategy and energy from the US Senator from Massachusetts.
For the past several months, Insider has been conducting a recurring SurveyMonkey Audience poll to track the state of the 2020 Democratic primary field. You can download every poll here, down to the individual respondent data. (Read more about how the Insider Democratic primary tracker works here).
We're interested mostly in how candidates have overlapping constituencies, and Warren has been Exhibit A when it comes to popular candidates that lots of people like but who have been unable to lock down voters.
Here's how she fared from the end of December through early February:
Warren's doing pretty good!
Over the past seven polls, Insider received opinions from 3,012 respondents who said they are registered to vote and planned to do so in the Democratic primary. Of those people, 2,394 of them - 79% - have heard of Warren, and of those who have heard of her 55% would be satisfied with Warren as nominee, one of the top performances of the field.
The critical stat is this: based on the eight most recent polls Insider has conducted, just 9% of the respondents satisfied with Warren said they were satisfied with her and her alone, of the current field. Another 21% are satisfied with Warren and another candidates, and 26% are satisfied with Warren and two other candidates.
That's a problem, and it's the reason that while Warren may be one of the most popular people in the field, she's not enjoying the same degree of success her rivals are.
By comparison, 21% of Sen. Bernie Sanders' supporters like just Bernie, with 24% liking just Sanders and another, and 21% liking Sanders and two others. That's massive. Biden's doing quite well too: 13% of his supporters like just him, 17% like him and one other, and 25% are down to Biden and two others.
To become the president, someone doesn't just have to be likable, they have to be the most likeable of all the people that are considered likeable. We're down to the wire. Nevada may be the second-to-last primary of February, but with the one-two punch of South Carolina on February 29 and Super Tuesday just three days later, the window is closing very, very quickly.
SurveyMonkey Audience polls from a national sample balanced by census data of age and gender. Respondents are incentivized to complete surveys through charitable contributions. Generally speaking, digital polling tends to skew toward people with access to the internet. SurveyMonkey Audience doesn't try to weigh its sample based on race or income.
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