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  5. Texas Sen. John Cornyn has defeated Democrat challenger MJ Hegar in her bid for US Senate

Texas Sen. John Cornyn has defeated Democrat challenger MJ Hegar in her bid for US Senate

Grace Panetta   

Texas Sen. John Cornyn has defeated Democrat challenger MJ Hegar in her bid for US Senate
PoliticsPolitics5 min read
  • Air Force veteran and 2018 House candidate MJ Hegar lost her challenge to incumbent GOP Sen. John Cornyn in Texas in 2020, per a projection by Decision Desk HQ.
  • Cornyn, who was first elected in 2002 and has served in a number of positions in Senate leadership, secured a fourth term to the US Senate.
  • The political tide has been shifting in the state in recent cycles, and Democrats made a serious play for several statewide and congressional races.
  • Most polls in Texas closed at 8 p.m. ET on Election Day.
  • See the live coverage and full results from the US Senate elections.

Sen. John Cornyn, a Republican incumbent, defeated Air Force veteran and 2018 US House candidate MJ Hegar in her challenge for a US Senate seat in Texas, according to Decision Desk HQ.

Most polls in Texas closed at 8 p.m. ET on Election Day.

The candidates

Cornyn, first elected in 2002, secured a fourth term to the US Senate. He's served in leadership positions as the Senate minority whip from 2013 to 2015 and then as the majority whip from 2015 to 2019.

Hegar, who ran for the House of Representatives in Texas' 31st District in 2018, gained national attention for a powerful TV ad she aired highlighting her military service and her work breaking down barriers for women in the military.

A combat veteran and search and rescue pilot in the US Air Force, Hegar received a Purple Heart for injuries she sustained while flying a helicopter rescue mission in Afghanistan. When her injuries left her unable to keep flying, she worked to change rules prohibiting women from serving in ground-combat positions, and was then inspired to run for office.

At the time of the election, Cornyn served on the powerful Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, the Senate Finance Committee, and the Senate Judiciary Committee.

His seniority in the Senate and long tenure representing the state led him to accrue a massive cash advantage in a large state with multiple expensive media markets.

As of the most recent campaign finance filings, Cornyn spent $29.8 million compared to $17.2 million for Hegar, who won her primary runoff on July 14.

The stakes

Regaining control of the US Senate for the first time since 2015 was a top priority for Democrats and would be a major accomplishment toward either delivering on a future president Joe Biden's policy goals or thwarting President Donald Trump's second-term agenda.

Before the election, the US Senate was made up of 53 Republicans, 45 Democrats, and two independents who caucus with Democrats. Democrats need to win back a net total of four seats to have a 51-seat majority. (If Biden wins, his vice president would also serve as president of the Senate and would be a tie-breaker vote.)

Just eight days before the election, the US Senate concluded a high-stakes confirmation battle to fill a Supreme Court seat left by Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, who died at age 87 from pancreatic cancer on September 18, with Justice Amy Coney Barrett.

Ginsburg's death threw a stick of dynamite into an already supercharged election shaped by a deadly pandemic that has so far claimed over 230,000 American lives.

Trump and McConnell's posturing on the issue excited conservatives enthusiastic about the president getting to appoint a third justice in his first term, but infuriated liberals who accused McConnell of blatant hypocrisy after he refused to hold confirmation proceedings for Obama's Supreme Court nominee Merrick Garland in 2016.

See Insider's full guide to the race for the US Senate here

Texas has been a Republican bastion for decades and hasn't elected a Democrat statewide since the 1990s.

But Democrats have gained ground in recent elections largely thanks to the state's expanding population in major metro areas, a growing Hispanic segment of the electorate, and, most important, the suburban college-educated voters who made up the GOP base for years fleeing the party over their strong dislike of Trump.

In 2018, Democrats flipped two US House seats, the 7th District in the Houston suburbs and the 32nd District in the Dallas-Fort Worth area, and Democrat Beto O'Rourke came within 3 percentage points of defeating Sen. Ted Cruz statewide.

Now, with Trump's favorability declining, Democrats are looking to expand their margins and put the seat back in play. The Biden campaign has expanded its investment and staffing in the state, as polls show Trump ahead of Biden by a margin of just 1 percentage point, according to FiveThirtyEight's polling averages.

But even if Biden pulled off the Texas-sized feat of flipping the state back to Democrats, Hegar's path to victory was expected to be far more difficult. Though Trump's brand may be increasingly toxic in the Lone Star State, Cornyn was comfortably ahead of Hegar in most of the polls of the race conducted before Election Day.

Cornyn also attempted to create some daylight between himself and Trump to win some crossover voters, telling the Fort Worth Star-Telegram that he "privately" disagreed with Trump on issues including the national deficit and border security.

Cornyn told the outlet's editorial board that his relationship with Trump was "maybe like a lot of women who get married and think they're going to change their spouse, and that doesn't usually work out very well."

Indeed, in 2016, voters splitting their tickets between Hillary Clinton and Republican Senate candidates allowed Republican senators including Sen. Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania and Sen. Ron Johnson Wisconsin to outperform Trump's razor-thin margins in those states.

As O'Rourke's 2018 race proved, getting close to winning a statewide election in Texas is no small feat. At the time, O'Rourke's Senate bid broke the all-time record for most money raised for a Senate campaign in a single quarter.

The money race

Cornyn raised $25.2 million this cycle, spent $27.1 million, and had $3.8 million in cash on hand, federal campaign finance filings show, while Hegar raised $24.2 million, spent $17.4 million, and had $6.8 million in cash on hand.

In 2020's third fundraising quarter, Hegar brought in a $13.5 million haul.

What the polls say

Cornyn led Hegar in all the public polls of the race conducted this year, according to FiveThirtyEight's tracker of US Senate polls, mostly leading her by healthy single-digit margins.

The most recent poll of the race conducted by Morning Consult from October 22-31 found Cornyn leading Hegar by four points, 47% to 43%, among likely voters. Another recent poll conducted by Emerson College also found Cornyn leading Hegar by four points, 51% to 47%, and a Data for Progress poll conducted October 27-November 1 found Cornyn leading by three points, 50% to 47%.

See the live coverage and full results from the U.S. presidential election.

What the experts say:

The Cook Political Report and Inside Elections rated the race as "leans Republican" and Sabato's Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics rated the race as "likely Republican."

According to FiveThirtyEight's US Senate forecasting model, Cornyn had an 89% chance of defeating Hegar in the November election and was expected to receive just over 10% more of the popular vote than Hegar.

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