If Biden wins the 2020 presidential election, he may have suburban women to thank

If Biden wins the 2020 presidential election, he may have suburban women to thank
Two women holding Biden/Harris lawns signs take a selfie at a rally with Democratic Senate candidates Rev. Raphael Warnock and Jon Ossoff on October 24, 2020, in Duluth, Georgia.Elijah Nouvelage/AFP via Getty Images
  • Suburban women are critical for Joe Biden to win the election and they are learning toward the Democratic nominee in the lead up to November 3.
  • According to recent Insider polling, Biden has a 7 percentage point lead over President Donald Trump among respondents from that voting bloc.
  • Appearing to understand the importance of the suburban female vote, Trump tried to woo this demographic at recent rallies.

Suburban women may well be Democratic nominee Joe Biden's ticket to the White House and, with four days until the election, it appears that they prefer him to President Donald Trump.

Recent Insider polling showed that Biden is 7 percentage points ahead of Trump within that voting bloc.

The chart below shows the difference between the margin of support for Trump and Biden among the given subset of respondents and the overall margin of support among likely voters as a whole:
According to recent polling from Insider and SurveyMonkey, suburban women tend to prefer Biden for president at higher rates than men. While men and women from rural and urban areas tended to vote similarly, a split is seen along gender lines in suburban areas that may define the outcome of this election cycle.

This breakdown comes from an aggregation of nine polls taken between August 8 and October 12. All told, the polls combined to 10,077 respondents, 8,623 of whom indicated they were registered to vote and 8,321 of whom said they would likely do so.

Respondents were asked about who they intended to vote for in November as well as a number of other questions. Respondents were asked to provide their zip code, which was later matched to census data regarding population density. Suburbs were classified as any zip code with a population between 100 and 2,900 people per square kilometer.

Among the survey respondents, suburban women made up 44% of likely voters. As a whole, respondents from zip codes classified as the suburbs make up 80% of likely voters.

While Trump trails among women in the suburbs, it appears that his campaign understands the importance of their vote. Earlier this month, he made a plea to female voters at a rally in Johnstown, Pennsylvania, saying "Suburban women, will you please like me? Please. Please. I saved your damn neighborhood, OK?" And then in Lansing, Michigan, he further attempted to woo female voters by saying, "We're getting your husbands back to work."

Exit polls in 2016 found that Trump beat former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in suburban areas by 4 percentage points.

Trump narrowly won some swing states in 2016 by less than 1 percentage point. If Biden can win over the suburbs on Election Day, it may be enough to propel those states back to the Democratic Party.

Additionally, Insider polling found that while female suburban voters prefer Biden at higher rates than Trump, rural men are slightly more likely to support Biden than rural women.

SurveyMonkey Audience polls from a national sample balanced by census data of age and gender. Respondents are incentivized to complete surveys through charitable contributions. Generally speaking, digital polling tends to skew toward people with access to the internet. SurveyMonkey Audience doesn't try to weight its sample based on race or income. Polling data collected 1,150 respondents August 7, 1,106 respondents on August 11, 1,128 respondents August 21-22, 1,073 respondents August 29, 1,161 respondents September 4, 1,107 respondents September 15, 1,017 respondents September 18, 1,122 respondents September 28, 1,176 respondents October 5, and 1,130 respondents on October 12. All polls carried approximately a 3 percentage point margin of error individually.