"Our preliminary analysis suggests that the incident was likely caused by a Ukrainian air defence missile fired to defend Ukrainian territory against Russian cruise missile attacks," Stoltenberg said.
Despite this, he argued that Russia was still to blame, since Ukraine was only using its air-defense systems to counter a huge barrage of Russian missiles heading for its cities.
"But let me clear," he said. "This is not Ukraine's fault. Russia bears ultimate responsibility as it continues its illegal war against Ukraine."
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Russia launched dozens of missiles across Ukraine on Tuesday, continuing a series of strikes on settlements and civilian infrastructure. Ukraine has been launching its own air-defense systems in response, managing to interrupt some of the strikes.
On Wednesday, Poland's president said that this was likely how the missile came to land in Przewodow, right next to the country's border with Ukraine.
He too said that he faulted Russia more than Ukraine.
Another NATO leader, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, thought similarly. "The possibility that the missile falling on Poland was not a Russian missile but a Ukrainian one changes very little," Reuters reported her as saying.
Initial reports suggested that the missile had been Russian, a theory that was later superseded.
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