Tory MPs believe 'enough' letters of no confidence in Boris Johnson have been submitted to trigger a leadership vote

• Conservative MPs believe the threshold for a leadership vote in Boris Johnson may have been reached.
• Sources told Insider they think 'enough' letters had been submitted to trigger a contest next Tuesday.

Speculation is growing that the threshold of letters of no confidence in Boris Johnson is near to being – or may have already been – reached, after a flurry of MPs went public with their concerns about the prime minister.

Several Tory MPs, all of whom spoke on condition of anonymity, told Insider they think the threshold of 54 has been reached following last week's damning report on so-called "partygate" by senior civil servant Sue Gray.

Conservative Party rules mean that it is possible for the threshold to be reached without an immediate announcement that would confirm it. The totals are secret up until such an announcement is made, with usual protocol suggesting the prime minister would be forewarned.

One Tory told Insider: "I'm hearing enough are now in… You never really know but looks like one 'caucus' are working together."

He suggested Sir Graham Brady may be holding back from making a statement until after the Queen's Jubilee, so as to avoid disrupting the celebrations.

MPs, including a well-placed source, said Tuesday was now shaping up as the likely date.

A former minister agreed that the threshold had been passed.

"I cannot believe the 54 wasn't reached some time ago," they said, in reference to the minimum number of letters required to trigger a vote.

Johnson is said to be "personally" calling MPs to shore up support, offering jobs if they "stay with me", one source said.

On Tuesday afternoon it emerged that Andrea Leadsom, a former Cabinet minister and Brexiteer, had criticised Johnson's "failure of leadership" – which one colleague branded as a "key" intervention in the move towards ousting him.

Sir Bob Neill, who said last week that he had submitted a letter, told Times Radio the number of would be higher than those confirmed because "not everybody, for perfectly sound reasons, will wish to speak about whether they have sent a letter in".

Another backbench MP said he estimated a lower total of around 45. He said of those suggesting larger numbers that he was "not sure how they get to the final ten or so before the by-elections".

These two votes – one in Wakefield and one in Tiverton and Homerton – could see further losses for the Conservatives.

The by-election in Wakefield, West Yorkshire, was triggered after the incumbent MP, Imran Ahmad Khan, was convicted of sexual assault. The Tiverton race was kicked off when Neil Parish resigned over allegations he watched pornography in the Commons.

Wakefield is now expected to swing back to Labour, according to repeat opinion polls, while the Tories could lose Tiverton to the Liberal Democrats.

One MP said campaigning in Wakefield was "dire", with partygate also a factor.

Monday saw more MPs publically put pressure on Johnson.

Jeremy Wright, a former culture secretary and attorney general, issued a statement on Monday calling for Johnson to resign, adding to a stream of discontent that has become increasingly public.

In the statement, the Kenilworth and Southam MP said the so-called "partygate" scandal had done "real and lasting damage to the reputation not just of this government but to the institutions and authority of government more generally".

Carshalton MP Elliot Colburn, one of the 2019 intake of Tories, submitted a letter calling for a vote of no confidence in the prime minister.

In an email to a constituent, Colburn reportedly said: "I am especially appalled at the revelations of the poor treatment of security and cleaning staff … so my letter remains submitted."

Meanwhile Nickie Aiken, another member of the 2019 cohort and a Conservative vice chair, called on Johnson to submit himself to a vote of confidence to "end speculation".

She told constituents that "events in Downing St during the pandemic has damaged the government and Conservative Party".

Lord Parkinson, an arts minister, admitted Tuesday morning that the leadership crisis was a "distraction from the work of government", but told Sky News it was "pretty pointless to speculate" about the numbers until Brady's announcement.