RECESSION WATCH: Goldman Sachs has created a 5-part checklist for investors looking to avoid the next economic meltdown

Reuters / Brendan McDermidRecession cries grew increasingly loud as the stock market endured a turbulent end to 2018, with many business leaders bracing for a meltdown by the end of 2019.Goldman Sachs compiled a five-part checklist for investors who want to monitor recessionary risks.As the market melted down at the end of 2018, cries for an imminent recession grew louder and louder.Investors were clearly spooked by an economic slowdown in China, and balked at revised guidance from tech giants like Apple, which trimmed their sales forecasts in response. Fear that the weakness could spread globally escalated to the point where US stocks hung on the precipice of a bear market.And if that wasn't bad enough, the world's biggest business leaders got in on the action. According to a New York Times survey of 134 business leaders at the Yale CEO Summit, nearly half said they expected a recession to strike by the end of 2019.Goldman Sachs, on the other hand, says people need to hold their horses. The firm's economics team staunchly believes that recession fears are overdone, and that worried investors should instead be focused on the enticing prospect of continued economic growth through 2020.High personal savings rates, a sizeable private sector financial surplus, and strong real income growth suggest that the US economy should continue to grow at an above-trend pace this year, a group of Goldman strategists led by Arjun Menon wrote in a recent client note.But don't let Goldman's near-term optimism fool you - the firm still has its eye firmly on the forces that could eventually send the US tumbling into a recession. To that end, they've formulated a checklist of five economic indicators investors would be wise to watch in the coming months. They are as follows:1) A slowing of economic growth to below 1%, or the unemployment rate rises sharplyThird-quarter gross domestic product growth in the US was 3.4%, on an annualized basis, so that specific measure has a ways to go. Further, the unemployment rate is currently near its lowest level in 18 years.2) A sharp rise in private sector financial balancesGoldman has crunched the numbers and found that this is a reliable leading recessionary indicator.Goldman Sachs3) A continued rotation into cashCash was surprisingly the best-performing asset class of 2018.Goldman Sachs4) An ISM manufacturing index decline below 50This measure came in at 54.3 in December.5) Flat industrial productionThe most recent reading showed a 0.6% gain for the month of November.Get the latest Goldman Sachs stock price here. NOW WATCH: Japanese lifestyle guru Marie Kondo explains how to organize your home once and never again function receiveMessage(event){ console.log(event.data.fullscreen); Android.fullscreen(event.data.fullscreen); }window.addEventListener(message, receiveMessage, false);

RECESSION WATCH: Goldman Sachs has created a 5-part checklist for investors looking to avoid the next economic meltdown

Read Full story

Insider Inc. is hiring a Content Marketing Producer for BI Prime

All the Twitch Prime gaming deals and special perks you can get on Prime Day 2019

The best Amazon Prime Day 2019 deals Prime members can get starting today

The global economy could post its worst year since the financial crisis as coronavirus weighs on already slowing growth, Bank of America says

Why fears of a Bernie Sanders nomination obliterating Democrats' control of the House are overblown

MP tops in land records digitisation, followed by Odisha, Maha, Chhattisgarh, TN: NCAER

Trump blamed 2020 Democrats for the ongoing stock-market plunge - but the nosedive was already underway due to coronavirus

People are selling books on Amazon claiming Satan and biological warfare caused the coronavirus. Amazon says it's giving customers a variety of viewpoints.

RECESSION WATCH: Goldman Sachs has created a 5-part checklist for investors looking to avoid the next economic meltdown

SIGN IN WITH

OR PROCEED WITHOUT REGISTRATION